Japanese folklore has long held that the appearance of deep-sea fish such as oarfish in shallow waters signals an impending earthquake. However, a new scientific study challenges this belief, finding no significant correlation between the two phenomena.
Researchers led by Dr Yoshiaki Orihara of Tokai University analysed data from November 1928 to March 2011, examining 336 deep-sea fish sightings and 221 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or larger. They found only one plausible connection between a fish sighting and a subsequent quake.
“As a result, one can hardly confirm the association between the two phenomena,” the authors concluded. The study also found no deep-sea fish appearances before earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher, and no quakes above magnitude 6.0 occurred within 10 days of a fish sighting.
Dr Orihara became interested in the myth after Japan’s 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake. He noted that if the folklore were true, fish sightings could aid disaster mitigation. The team compiled a catalog of events from local newspaper archives for their statistical analysis.
The researchers hope their findings will influence those who believe the folklore and be shared widely across Japan.
