Donald Trump's Board of Peace (BoP) Gaza recovery plan has dramatically shrunk from an ambitious blueprint for reconstructing the entire territory to a small pilot project in the south of the strip. Even the envisaged pilot scheme—a temporary camp for a tiny fraction of Gaza's 2 million displaced people, with a Palestinian administration, police, and a small international security force—is not expected to take shape before the end of the year.
Incremental steps and stalled progress
In recent weeks, a few Moroccan and Kosovar officers have arrived in Israel to form the kernel of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) tasked with protecting the pilot camp. A logistical base for this force is nearing completion at the Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza. However, preparatory work on the pilot camp near Rafah has not begun, nor has construction of the camp's ISF support base. Satellite images show disturbed earth but no new structures. Substantial progress is not expected before Israel holds elections on 27 October, which could bring down Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition government.
Ceasefire violations and political hurdles
Israel has routinely violated the Trump-brokered ceasefire since it was declared last October, blocked reconstruction work, and severely limited humanitarian aid flows into Gaza. Western diplomats in Jerusalem believe the best hope for progress is a new Israeli government, but it is unclear whether any successor coalition would be more flexible. One diplomat argued the BoP had no choice but to make the most of limited progress, as an admission of failure would open the way for extreme factions in the Israeli government with radically different plans for Gaza.
"The aim is just to keep something going, keep the ball in play, because if you stop there are others with a more extreme agenda just waiting to jump in and take over, and they are talking about wholesale population transfer and colonisation," the diplomat said.
Risk of renewed all-out offensive
There is growing apprehension that Netanyahu, facing electoral defeat, will gamble on a new all-out offensive in Gaza before the October vote. Israel has carried out frequent strikes killing more than 1,100 Palestinians since the October ceasefire and now directly occupies more than 60% of the territory, with a buffer zone beyond. A return to full-scale war would likely sweep away even the BoP's modest pilot plan.
Disarmament talks and Israeli demands
Israeli officials have repeatedly suggested a return to war is inevitable because Hamas has refused to disarm. Hamas has said it would lay down its weapons under certain conditions and took part in negotiations in Cairo over the weekend on possible disarmament mechanisms. The talks covered disarmament of Hamas and rival Israeli-backed militias, who would receive surrendered weapons, how they would be stored, and whether assault rifles would count as offensive or personal arms. However, reports from Cairo suggested progress was unlikely while Israel continued airstrikes and advanced into Hamas-held territory.
"As long as Israel doesn't commit to a gradual withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and to changing the reality there, there's no basis for talks," a Palestinian source told Haaretz.
Criticism of BoP envoy and limited pressure on Israel
The BoP's high representative for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, was widely criticised for echoing Israeli talking points in a May report to the UN Security Council, blaming Hamas for the stalled peace process without mentioning Israeli violations. The limited pressure on Israel has been more discreet. Aryeh Lightstone, the Trump administration's lead negotiator in Israel and a BoP adviser, wrote to the Netanyahu government in June calling for relaxation of restrictions on "dual-use" humanitarian aid, including water pipes and solar panels. The letter also requested clearance for the entry of the ISF and a vetted Palestinian police force. The Israeli government has not approved any of these requests, according to an official.
From grandiose vision to modest pilot
The pilot programme near Rafah is a far cry from the initial BoP aspirations. Launching the scheme with a slideshow in January, Jared Kushner promised that gates to aid would be thrown open and basic infrastructure restored across the strip within 100 days. After five months of deadlock, the less ambitious pilot plan was hammered out at meetings in Cyprus attended by Mladenov, Lightstone, advisers from the Tony Blair Institute, and members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). The NCAG, a body of 13 Palestinian professionals, has been barred from entering Gaza by Israel and is based in Cairo.
Details of the pilot camp
The pilot camp would consist of portable cabins for tens of thousands of displaced people in Gaza, set up in the buffer zone along the ceasefire line near Rafah. Israeli troops would withdraw, and security at the crossing between Hamas-run Gaza and the camp would be overseen by the ISF and a specially trained Palestinian police force vetted by NCAG and the ISF, though Israel is expected to have a decisive say in recruitment. Training of this force in Egypt has not begun and is expected to take several months. The ISF is hoped to be about 5,000-strong, a quarter of the original plan, with troops from Morocco, Kosovo, and possibly Albania and Kazakhstan. The legal framework for their presence is still being negotiated with Israel.
"I think you're looking at late 2026. If we got this done, in place, by December, I'd be very happy," an official familiar with the planning said.
Funding and Palestinian concerns
It is unclear where funds for the pilot would come from. Very little of the $17bn originally pledged for Trump's peace plan has materialised. The EU's Palestine Donor Group raised €883m for Gaza, intended for basic water and sanitation infrastructure. The BoP is negotiating for some of the $11bn in Palestinian tax revenue and frozen bank assets seized by Israel to be diverted to project funds. This has outraged the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank, which has been financially suffocated.
"These are not Israeli funds to withhold or bargain with. These funds must be released immediately and unconditionally," PA foreign minister Varsen Aghabekian said.
Aghabekian noted the switch from a whole-of-Gaza approach to a small pilot project presents a dilemma for Palestinians. "The humanitarian catastrophe cannot be managed through fragmented or partial measures. At the same time, every effort that genuinely saves Palestinian lives deserves careful consideration. Our concern, however, is that temporary arrangements must never become a substitute for a comprehensive solution or serve to normalise an unacceptable reality," she said.
According to an official familiar with the Cyprus talks, the NCAG was split over whether to go along with the Rafah pilot scheme, fearing it would prove divisive within Gaza's 2.1 million Palestinian population and put the vast majority on a lower priority tier in humanitarian relief.
