The Bank of England's warning that food inflation could reach 7% by the end of the year highlights how little protection Britain has against geopolitical shocks. A disruption in the Gulf affects energy, fertiliser, and supermarket prices, leading to falling incomes, weak growth, and job losses. This reveals a system unable to absorb disruption, not just inflation.
Interest rate hikes cannot fix global energy prices; they only redistribute the impact by compressing wages and deterring investment. The UK's stability depends on security that has yet to be built into its infrastructure. Key sectors like finance, energy, data, and food are tightly bound and run on thin margins, with efficiency prioritised over resilience.
Fiona Hill, co-author of the UK's 2025 strategic defence review, warned that the public is already exposed to forms of war without recognising them. Systems sustaining daily life—communications, healthcare—are vulnerable to hacking, subversion, and economic coercion. She argued citizens should be primed for privation or participation, not trench warfare.
Hill noted that the UK has already experienced sabotage and cyber-attacks by Russia, and the homeland is 'back on the pitch' as the US retreats from European security. The task is to face rising instability and change the public mindset without turning society into a security project. In hybrid warfare, the distinction between civilian welfare and national defence is eroding.
Hill's approach needs a political narrative linking security to the economy and everyday life, which Britain lacks. Ed Miliband has come closest to developing one. Without a shift, policies advocating resilience risk appearing abstract or alarmist, making it harder to build public consent for structural changes.
