The UK must urgently adapt to survive global heating, with temperatures forecast to exceed 40°C by 2050, according to a landmark report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The report warns that the country was 'built for a climate that no longer exists' and calls for widespread installation of air conditioning, particularly in care homes, hospitals, and schools.
The CCC recommends that all care homes and hospitals should have air conditioning within the next 10 years, and all schools within 25 years. It also advises the government to set a maximum temperature for working, both indoors and outdoors. Without action, heatwaves could cause an additional 10,000 heat-related deaths per year, as about 90% of UK homes are likely to overheat.
In 2022, temperatures above 40°C led to around 3,000 excess deaths, and such extreme heat is expected to become 'the new normal'. The report suggests that rather than cooling entire buildings, households could maintain one cool room for use during heatwaves. However, air conditioning is energy-intensive, accounting for about 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, though modern heat pump systems are more efficient.
The climate crisis is already costing the UK about £60 billion annually, or 2% of GDP, through flood damages and crop losses. The report warns that the 7 million properties at risk of flooding could increase by 40% by 2050, and river peak flows could be 45% higher. Sea levels may rise by 20-45 cm, and heavy rainfall intensity could increase by 60%.
Natural flood defences like wetlands will not be sufficient, and more concrete barriers will be needed. Droughts are also expected to become more frequent, with river flows in summer likely to be a third lower than 20 years ago. By 2050, the daily water supply shortfall could reach 5 billion litres, equivalent to about 2,000 Olympic swimming pools, necessitating new reservoirs.
By 2100, summers as dry as those in 1976 and 2018 could become the norm, and the number of high-risk days for wildfires is expected to double by 2050. The CCC urges the government to treat heat resilience as a priority alongside flood preparedness and water security.
