The El Niño climate phenomenon, now locked in the Pacific Ocean, could develop into the strongest on record, according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Climatologists are watching the strengthening event with increasing alarm, describing forecasts from climate models as 'mind blowing' and 'astounding'. Globally, experts say a strong El Niño could combine with global heating to deliver the hottest year on record, likely in 2027.
Record-Breaking Sea Surface Temperatures
A key indicator of El Niño strength is sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific. Dr Zhi-Weng Chua, a senior climatologist at BoM, noted that the highest reliable monthly average was +2.6°C in January 1983. However, current climate models suggest this El Niño could peak between +2.2°C and above +3°C. 'There is a realistic chance that the peak anomaly of this event will rank in the top events, with a chance it could rank as the highest,' Dr Chua said. 'It is remarkable, and it shows just how much heat there is in the ocean.'
BoM's own model predicts the El Niño peaking at about +3.3°C, with the phenomenon persisting until at least the coming summer. Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, reviewed 14 seasonal model forecasts and stated, 'It looks like this year's El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.'
Impacts on Australia
While the strength of an El Niño does not directly correlate with the severity of impacts in Australia, it typically brings hotter and drier conditions in winter and spring for southern and eastern parts. BoM's latest long-range forecast for August to October shows huge areas of the country have a high chance of maximum temperatures in the top 20% on record. Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, and Perth all have at least an 80% chance of experiencing these temperature extremes, along with an increased chance of unusually low rainfall.
Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at the Australian National University, said, 'Every time I look at it, I have this sense of awe but deep concern. I think it will be one for the record books. But this doesn't mean the impacts here in Australia will be extreme. We are waiting with bated breath.'
Global and Regional Concerns
Dr Kim Reid, an expert on seasonal predictions at the University of Melbourne, warned that if the models are correct, 'it would be astounding to see that amount of heat being released from the ocean into the atmosphere. That's going to have considerable impacts around the world.' She highlighted the potential for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to combine with El Niño, which historically led to very dry periods, such as the 'tinderbox drought' preceding Australia's black summer bushfires in 2019-2020.
Current sea surface temperature maps show a huge tongue of unusually warm water extending east from the northern South American coast. Oceans have been absorbing the world's extra heat, and this El Niño could release a significant portion into the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming.
