A University of Oxford study has revealed that hundreds of cities worldwide are at risk from rising temperatures due to El Nino, with many popular tourist destinations facing the greatest threat. The research analyzed 220 major cities, finding that 95 percent of the most vulnerable are in South and Southeast Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa.
Key Findings
Lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam emphasized that exposure to heat alone is not the only risk factor. "Our study highlights the importance of multi-faceted global heat risk assessments, which reveal the diverse pathways through which urban heat risk emerges," she said. "In many major cities, particularly across Asia and Africa, extreme heat coincides with high vulnerability and limited coping capacity. This combination can substantially increase heat risk and, in some cases, have life-threatening consequences."
Most at-Risk Cities
The study ranked cities with populations over 1 million, considering factors like age and financial status. The top at-risk cities include:
- Al Basrah, Iraq
- Ahmadabad, India
- Bamako, Mali
- Nagpur, India
- Quezon City, Philippines
- Baghdad, Iraq
- Madurai, India
- Faisalabad, Pakistan
- Lagos, Nigeria
- Hyderabad, Pakistan
- Barranquilla, Colombia
- Ibadan, Nigeria
- Port Harcourt, Nigeria
- Conakry, Guinea
- Bhopal, India
- Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Kaduna, Nigeria
- Bandung, Indonesia
- Port-au-Prince, Haiti
- Kanpur, India
UK Cities Rank Low
British cities fared well, with London ranked as the least vulnerable. Glasgow placed 215th and Birmingham 213th. Co-author Jesus Lizana noted, "This study provides the first globally harmonised and directly comparable assessment of urban heat risk across cities worldwide. It offers a powerful tool for identifying where adaptation efforts are most urgently needed."
The study was published in Sustainable Cities and Societies, with researchers warning that heatwaves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, driving excess mortality, infrastructure failures, and economic losses. With over half the global population in cities, urban areas are becoming critical climate impact hotspots.
