In 1960, a paper published in the journal Science by three University of Illinois academics—Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot—warned of a catastrophic event on Friday, November 13, 2026. Their doomsday scenario was not based on nuclear war or natural disasters but on overpopulation.
The Equation and Its Basis
The researchers analyzed population growth patterns in Western civilisation over the preceding century. They concluded that medical breakthroughs were driving an explosive increase in global population. Their equation predicted that the number of inhabitants on Earth would 'tend towards infinity' at some point in 2026, leading to a planet where food production cannot meet demand.
In 1960, the world population was about three billion. As of 2026, it has surged to over eight billion, showing no immediate signs of slowing. Current forecasts suggest the turning point, when global population begins to decline, will occur around 2080.
Historical Context and Malthusian Theory
British economist Thomas Malthus warned in 1798 that mankind would eventually face food scarcity. He wrote: 'Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature. The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.' Malthus emphasised that while population grows exponentially, food production increases arithmetically. However, agricultural breakthroughs have so far kept pace with demand.
Throughout history, many apocalyptic predictions have been made, from a scribe around 4,800 years ago who lamented declining morals among youth, to Jewish commander Simon bar Giora who anticipated the world's end around 70AD, and South African preacher Joshua Mhlakela who pinpointed the apocalypse for October 2025. Most lacked scientific backing, but the 1960 equation holds some credibility in scientific circles.
Billionaire Preparations
Some billionaires are preparing for potential apocalyptic scenarios. Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg has invested $187 million (£139 million) in a 1,600-acre property in Hawaii, reportedly building an extravagant ranch with a 5,000-square-foot underground bunker equipped with self-sufficient power and food supplies. Amazon chief Jeff Bezos spent $147 million (£109 million) on two luxury homes on Indian Creek Island in Florida. The small Hawaiian island of Lanai, off the coast of Maui, is now almost entirely controlled by billionaire Larry Ellison. Both locations, though scenic, could be easily fortified in the event of a catastrophic 'Malthusian crisis' as depicted in apocalyptic science fiction films, which often end in brutal food riots or widespread cannibalism.
