The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis intensifies. With an El Niño event expected later this year, the global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027.
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more heat and driving extreme weather, including the recent heatwave in the UK and Europe. Global heating is estimated to be causing one death every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly.
A report produced for the WMO by the UK Met Office predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the latest European heatwave is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis. He urged nations to kick the fossil fuel addiction much faster, noting that clean power is now cheaper than fossil fuels.
The WMO report also predicts that the next five winters in the Arctic will be 2.8°C above recent averages, meaning the region is heating up more than three times faster than the global average. Rainfall predictions suggest northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and Siberia are likely to be wetter, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.
