The world's capacity to feed its growing population is under severe threat from the escalating 'chaos' of climate-driven extreme weather, experts have warned. While agricultural efficiency has soared over the past 80 years, these gains are now being undermined by erratic weather patterns, from biblical floods to prolonged droughts, putting future harvests in peril.
Global Harvests in Disarray: A Map of Misfortune
Recent years have provided a stark preview of this volatile future. A series of extreme weather events between 2023 and 2024 have devastated crops across the globe, highlighting the fragility of our food systems.
In England and France during the winter of 2023-24, relentless rainfall led to catastrophic harvests. England suffered its second-worst harvest on record, with wheat production dropping by a fifth, leading to predicted losses of around £600m for farmers. Across the Channel, France saw a 25% drop in soft wheat production, its smallest harvest in over four decades.
A devastating drought in southern Africa in February 2024 prompted national disaster declarations in Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In Zambia, over one million hectares of maize were destroyed, while half of Zimbabwe's maize crop was wiped out. Although linked to El Niño, scientists note climate change acts as a 'double whammy', exacerbating such phenomena.
The United States experienced its driest autumn on record in 2024, with three-quarters of the mainland abnormally dry. These conditions contributed to over $20.3bn (£15.1bn) in crop losses last year alone.
Meanwhile, the Amazon basin faced one of its worst-ever droughts in late 2024, affecting millions in Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. In Peru alone, more than 18,000 hectares of crops were affected, and low river levels in Paraguay crippled export capabilities.
In Southeast Asia, floods from October to December 2024 ravaged rice paddies across Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Malaysia lost a potential 5.3 million bags of rice, while the Philippines saw nearly 600,000 tonnes of rough rice crops destroyed.
The Looming Caloric Crisis: Projections and Warnings
These case studies are just a fraction of a global pattern. Under high-emission scenarios, future crop yields could decrease by a staggering quarter. Maize, the world's most produced crop, is projected to see yields drop by 6% in a low-warming scenario, and by as much as 24% in extreme scenarios by the century's end.
Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, stated: "Climate change and weather extremes will drive down global caloric yields by about 24% under high future emissions. This would result in higher food prices, which in rich countries would feel like inflation. In poor countries, this would exacerbate food security problems and could negatively affect political stability."
This comes as the global population is expected to grow by a further 2 billion by 2100. More than 600 million people worldwide are projected to face food insecurity by 2030, a number that will swell as climates become more erratic.
The Path to Resilience: Solutions and Systemic Change
Experts are clear that tackling this crisis requires immediate and multifaceted action. Kaveh Zahedi, director at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), emphasised the underlying chaos, noting: "Global averages mask a huge amount of chaos that lies underneath. What you see is unpredictability."
The solutions advocated focus on meeting climate goals, building systemic resilience, and cutting food waste. The FAO promotes initiatives like smarter rice cultivation and restoring degraded agricultural land.
"Sustainability writ large is a part of that solution," Zahedi said. "It has to be about resilience. It has to be about expanding farmer incomes. It has to be about making sure that you have nutritious food. It has to be about access and affordability."
Professor Hultgren underscores that emission reduction is paramount: "One of the best things we can do is cut emissions. Going from high warming to more moderate warming cuts global caloric yield losses by half. That helps everyone – from breadbasket farmers to developed-world consumers to the global poor."
The evidence is now irrefutable. The efficiency gains of the 20th century are being systematically undone by the climate volatility of the 21st. Securing the world's food supply demands a rapid, global transition to sustainable agriculture and a decisive move away from high-emission pathways.
