As the new year begins, Prince Harry awaits a pivotal decision that could reshape his future visits to the United Kingdom. A review of his taxpayer-funded security is underway, and a favourable outcome is expected to be announced in the coming weeks. This could significantly increase the Duke of Sussex's trips to see his father, King Charles, potentially opening a door to reconciliation. However, the same hopeful prospect does not extend to his fractured relationship with his older brother, the Prince of Wales.
The Irreparable Rift Between Brothers
Reports indicate that Prince William and Prince Harry have not spoken since the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The future king is said to have no current desire to reconcile with his younger brother, a stark contrast to their once famously close bond. This estrangement stems from what William reportedly foresaw as inevitable turmoil.
According to royal biographer Tina Brown in her bestselling book, The Palace Papers, Prince William predicted major issues long before the Sussexes' official departure. Writing about events in November 2019, Brown details how William approached a trusted, retired Palace aide at a London charity function. "William apparently said to him with a worried air, 'We may need you to come back for a bit. I'm afraid the wheels are going to fall off with Harry,'" Brown revealed.
The Fundamental Flaw in the 'Half-In, Half-Out' Plan
The core of the conflict, as analysed by Brown, was the Sussexes' ambition for a unique 'half-in, half-out' royal role. This model, envisioned after they decided to step back from senior duties, created immediate and insoluble problems. The author notes that this plan "threw up multiple conflicts of interest" that were apparent to everyone except Harry and Meghan themselves.
One critical issue was the impossibility of cleanly separating commercial ventures from royal duties. Brown illustrated the problem with a hypothetical scenario: "If, say, the high-visibility couple tacked a few days of shooting a paid Netflix documentary onto the back of a Foreign Office-funded Commonwealth tour, there would be an uproar." Another major point of contention was the ongoing question of taxpayer-funded police protection for the family, a debate that continues to this day.
Brown summarised the dilemma as a question of identity: "Whether the Sussexes were celebrity royals or royal celebrities, two very different states of being." She concluded that by the summer of 2019, the couple had made a "decisive and deadly pivot" towards the former.
A Glimmer of Hope in the Security Battle
The path to any potential UK presence for Harry now hinges on his long-running legal battle over security. After losing a case at the Court of Appeal in May against the Home Office, a new development has emerged. Following the July 2024 appointment of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Harry submitted a formal request for a fresh risk assessment to the Executive Committee for the Protection of Royalty and Public Figures (Ravec).
A source close to the Sussexes told the Mail on Sunday that, after this new assessment, "It's now a formality. Sources at the Home Office have indicated that security is now nailed-on for Harry." A ruling believed to be in his favour is anticipated in the coming weeks.
While this could facilitate more frequent visits to see the King, it does little to mend the profound breach with the Prince of Wales. The recall of a Palace aide by William in late 2019 stands as a testament to the depth of his concern and the accuracy of his prediction, marking the moment the royal family braced for the fallout from a split that continues to define the monarchy's modern era.
