Special educational needs services in England are heading towards “total collapse”, with councils warning that 59 authorities could face effective bankruptcy by March 2028 unless urgent structural reforms are implemented. The County Councils Network (CCN) has reported that accumulated deficits from special educational needs and disability (Send) support could reach £18bn by the end of the decade, driven by soaring demand for education and health care plans (EHCPs).
The number of EHCPs issued rose to a record 638,000 in 2024-25, with forecasts suggesting 840,000 by 2028-29 – equivalent to one in 20 children and young people. Autism, neurodiversity, social and emotional health, and language difficulties account for more than two-thirds of these plans. Councils have increasingly relied on expensive private specialist schools, with annual costs per place averaging £72,000, compared to £10,000 in mainstream schools.
The CCN report calls for the government to write off councils’ accumulated Send debts and reform the appeal tribunal system to reduce access to specialist support – changes that parents are likely to oppose fiercely. Matthew Hicks, CCN chair, warned: “The system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years. This could mean families facing even longer waits for support, councils facing a level of demand that the system was never designed for, and local authorities staring down unimaginable deficits of almost £18bn.”
A crucial deadline looms in March 2028, when an accounting “override” that allows councils to keep Send debts off their balance sheets expires. Restoring these debts would render many authorities effectively insolvent. Lorna Baxter, president of the Association of Local Authority Treasurers, said: “We often hear of the black hole in public finances but Send deficits totalling billions of pounds are being hidden in local authority accounts. Without prompt government intervention, we risk an unprecedented local authority financial crisis.”
The Department for Education acknowledged it had “inherited a Send system on its knees” and pledged to improve mainstream inclusion so that every child can thrive at their local school. The government is preparing long-delayed and potentially controversial changes aimed at curbing spending while meeting specialist needs within mainstream schools.
