London's primary schools are facing a severe drop in pupil numbers, with experts warning that many could be forced to close due to a sustained decline in birth rates. A new report reveals that by 2027, there will be over 3,800 fewer children entering reception classes in the capital, equivalent to 134 classes.
The decline follows a 17 per cent decrease in London's birth rate, with reception pupil numbers expected to be 20,000 lower in 2025 than a decade earlier. Secondary schools are also set to see falling rolls from next year, with overall pupil numbers in London boroughs projected to drop by 4.3 per cent by 2027.
London Councils, a cross-party body representing local authorities, warns that schools receiving less funding due to fewer pupils may need to merge or close. The borough of Lambeth is expected to see the sharpest decline at 14.3 per cent, followed by the City of London at 11.8 per cent, with Lewisham, Westminster, and Camden also experiencing drops of over seven per cent.
The trend is not confined to London; hundreds of primary schools across England and Wales are at risk. The number of live births in England and Wales fell to 605,479 in 2022, nearly 125,000 fewer than a decade earlier, and this downward trend is expected to continue. Factors include families moving out of cities after the pandemic, the housing crisis, and Brexit.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, urged the Government to maintain funding and avoid hasty closures. He said: 'Schools are a crucial part of the fabric of local communities... A knee-jerk reaction of rushing to close these schools could backfire in the long-term if pupil numbers recover.'
