Uncertainty and Division in Venezuela One Month After US Military Action
In the early hours of 3 January, Sader Guerra and his family in Caracas were abruptly awakened by the sounds of bombing ordered by former US President Donald Trump. "My daughter called me, she said: 'The Americans are bombarding us, dad, we are under attack'," Guerra recalls. Like many Caraqueños, he was accustomed to military demonstrations and low-flying planes near Fort Tiuna military base, but this was different. Initially dismissing the events as routine, his perspective shifted when his daughter sent a video clip showing Nicolás Maduro in handcuffs, escorted by US soldiers. "I thought the video was AI-generated," Guerra admits. "It was only once the sun came up and we saw the devastation around us – the destruction, people killed – that the news became real."
Tense Calm and Widespread Anxiety in Caracas
In the days following the attack, Caracas entered what residents describe as a "tense calm." Maria Ovalle Baró, a marketing campaigner for an entertainment company, notes that fear gripped the population, discouraging many from venturing outside. "There was a lot of fear among the population about going out in case of another attack," she says. This fear quickly morphed into anxiety over the unknown: "Not knowing what will happen, how the Venezuelan government will act, and how the US government will proceed." Ovalle Baró adds that political speeches have done little to clarify intentions, echoing a local saying: "aquí huele a gato encerrado" – something smells fishy.
Police checkpoints, known locally as alcabalas, appeared across parts of the city, accompanied by rumours of roadblocks operated by armed pro-government groups searching for signs of dissent. "Personally, I haven't seen any," Ovalle Baró says. "I simply avoided the areas they were supposedly located." In the immediate aftermath, only about 20 per cent of businesses opened, primarily large supermarkets, pharmacies, and petrol stations. Long queues formed as people stocked up on essentials, with police deployed to prevent looting. Within a short period, around 70 per cent of businesses had reopened, though many opted to close early as a precautionary measure.
Daily Life and Persistent Protests
One month on, reports from the capital suggest that daily life has largely returned to a semblance of normalcy. However, this surface calm is disrupted daily by protests. Hundreds of Venezuelans take to the streets, demanding Maduro's release. Organised by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), these demonstrations have drawn thousands of citizens. Some carry Maduro's portrait, while others hold signs proclaiming "Freedom for Maduro" and "We want you back among us." At a recent rally, PSUV vice president for mobilisation, Nahum Fernández, emphasised unity: "Unity is not up for debate... Anyone conspiring against unity is conspiring against Venezuela."
Expatriate Perspectives: Relief and Fear
Outside Venezuela, particularly among expatriate communities in Colombia, Europe, and the United States, a different narrative prevails. Many frame Maduro's removal as overdue and inevitable. José Antonio Martin, an ornithologist living in northern Colombia, expresses relief and excitement: "I jumped for joy and cried. It was the news I had been hoping for because I haven't seen my family in ten years, including my youngest daughter... Every Venezuelan person inside and outside the country has lost something or somebody there."
Expats highlight the pervasive fear of speaking out against the government. "People are scared to talk," Martin explains. "My daughter in Venezuela wouldn't answer my questions [after the attacks] in case someone was listening in. We are paranoid that calls will be intercepted, that they are looking for spies, or the phone lines will be cut off. Everyone feels that they are in danger right now, it's a confusing time." This anxiety is compounded by economic struggles, with Martin noting that while food is plentiful, access is hindered by a lack of money. "Right now people are spending the last coins they have on food just in case something bigger happens," he says.
Humanitarian Crisis and Conflicting Realities
Venezuela's long-running humanitarian crisis exacerbates these tensions. Years of economic collapse, hyperinflation, sanctions, and climate-related disasters have left millions vulnerable. According to the UN's aid coordination office, OCHA, 7.9 million people – more than a quarter of the population – require urgent humanitarian assistance. Yet, some on the ground present a contrasting view. Rosita Baró, a retired translator living on Margarita Island, describes her initial shock: "When I heard Maduro had been kidnapped and his whereabouts were unknown, I was in a state of shock. I felt very worried about my daughter [who lives in Caracas] and the people who were suffering in the city."
Baró challenges Western perceptions: "I think people in the West have a mistaken belief regarding what is happening with the people in Venezuela. Beyond political affiliation, we all love this country, and in the face of constant threats – US fleets targeting boats, launching missiles and then the merciless bombing – a unity and a sense of patriotism have emerged." Guerra echoes this sentiment, rejecting the notion of Venezuela as a failed state. He maintains a comfortable standard of living, running his own business and recently enjoying a Mediterranean cruise. "Venezuela has never been broken," he insists. "We have endured a lot of frustration... but we will always be able to survive independently because of the country's rich oil supplies."
Complex Political Dynamics and Regional Sensitivities
Rafael Rezende, a researcher at the Center for Studies in Social Theory and Latin America, explains that these sharply contrasting views reflect a more complex reality. "People often think that non-democratic regimes survive only through force, but that's not true," he says. "Any regime needs some level of popular support, a bureaucracy, and the backing of the military." Chavismo, he notes, continues to command loyalty through social policies, state employment, and, in some cases, corruption. "Many people's living conditions improved under [Hugo] Chávez's governments," Rezende adds.
However, opposition remains fierce, rooted in experiences of corruption and political closure. Crucially, Rezende points out that opposition to US military action transcends these divisions. "Many people in Venezuela may not be Chavistas and still oppose US actions," he says. "For Latin Americans, US military interventions are always a sensitive issue." In January, the UN warned that the US seizure of Maduro had "added a new layer of uncertainty to an already volatile situation."
Navigating Uncertainty with Resilience
For many Venezuelans, uncertainty now defines daily life. Ovalle Baró observes that people continue to work out of necessity rather than confidence. "They go out with fear and anxiety, but continue with their lives," she says. "As we say here, 'hay que seguir echándole bola para vivir'" – you've got to keep hustling. Amidst the turmoil, one thing unites Venezuelans across the political spectrum and around the globe: the hope that diplomacy, not force, will shape the future. This shared desire for a peaceful resolution underscores the resilience of a nation grappling with profound challenges and conflicting narratives.
