Ukraine's Conscription Crisis Intensifies Amid Ongoing War with Russia
As Ukraine continues to resist Russia's relentless assaults, the nation is grappling with a significant conscription scandal, with millions avoiding military call-up and hundreds of thousands of soldiers absent without leave. World affairs editor Sam Kiley reports from Izyum in eastern Ukraine, highlighting the dire situation on the ground.
Scale of the Draft-Dodging Problem
Ukraine is confronting a major conscription crisis at a critical juncture, just as President Volodymyr Zelensky has cautioned that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could undermine efforts to combat Russia's invasion. Earlier this year, Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov disclosed that Ukraine has approximately 2 million draft-dodgers and hundreds of thousands more who are absent without leave (AWOL). The Independent has engaged with Ukrainians to uncover the harsh realities of this issue, as external pressures mount on the war-torn country.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has shifted its focus from Ukraine to the conflict with Iran, peace negotiations have stalled, and Vladimir Putin has initiated a spring offensive. Zelensky further expressed concerns in an Easter Sunday interview, warning that a prolonged Middle East war might erode US support for Ukraine, potentially reducing deliveries of essential Patriot air-defence missiles.
Impact on Military Morale and Resources
Since the full-scale invasion began four years ago, Ukraine has defied expectations by holding back Russia's onslaught, now transitioning to a war of attrition. The nation boasts that its forces are inflicting more casualties on Russians than Moscow can recruit monthly. However, as the conflict evolves from a spirited defence in early 2022 to a grinding, relentless battle, Minister Fedorov revealed the extent of the conscription issue to parliament in January.
Beyond the 2 million Ukrainians evading mobilisation, the prosecutor's office has opened around 290,000 cases since 2022 against soldiers for deserting their posts. Some troops have even posted videos of their escapes across the Carpathian Mountains to neighbouring countries, despite survival odds being higher than for Russian soldiers, with a kill ratio estimated at one Ukrainian dead for every eight or more Russians.
Personal Stories and Psychological Challenges
"Denys," a 37-year-old draft-dodger, shared his perspective: "At the war's outset, I volunteered at the enlistment office, but was told to wait. Later, I witnessed injustices—people buying their way out while others with illnesses were forced into service. Now, caring for my sick father, I fear that if I lose a limb, I won't be able to help anyone. But if Russians threaten Kyiv again and everyone serves, I'll join too."
On the front lines, reconnaissance soldiers report exhaustion but feel too valuable to be rotated out. A drone pilot near Zaporizhzhia recounted three years of continuous action as a foot soldier before switching to drones. Oleksandr Merezkho, chair of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign affairs committee, noted: "People view military service as a one-way ticket due to lack of rotations. If they knew they'd fight for one year and then rest, they'd be more inclined to join. The issue is psychological; we have enough men to fight for over a decade, but managing resources and creating incentives is key."
Volunteerism and Conscription Policies
Ukraine initially relied on vast numbers of volunteers after Russia's invasion, avoiding drafts for young men. When conscription was introduced, it targeted men over 30, with the minimum age for compulsory service remaining 25. Additionally, 18- to 24-year-olds were permitted to leave the country last year, leading hundreds of thousands to depart. Zelensky's Servant of the People party has emphasised sparing the youth from the war's worst aspects, but incentive schemes for joining the armed forces have failed, with local press reporting high casualty rates.
Yevhen Karas, commander of the Raid Regiment of drone operators, stated: "No big war was won by volunteers alone. As a volunteer in 2014 and 2022, I understand that no country can produce enough fighters without conscription. We need millions of volunteers." Scandals have emerged, such as a major in Sloviansk taking bribes for leave and selling resources allocated to deserters.
Efforts to Reform and Improve Military Quality
Minister Fedorov, a Yale University management graduate, is leading initiatives to transform Ukraine's forces into data-driven centres, using statistics and strict reporting to combat corruption. His team believes solving manpower issues will become a priority, even as Ukraine has held the line for four years. Brigadier Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the Third Corps, noted that his brigade is oversubscribed and "90 per cent volunteers," with soldiers joining units they trust for good management and equipment.
Despite advancements in drone warfare, many officers criticise persistent "Soviet-style" attitudes among senior leaders. Draft-dodgers risk being hunted and sent to dangerous areas, forcing many into hiding. Biletskyi argued: "Give people confidence in good training and commanders, and most will sign up. Improve training and officer quality, and mobilisation will yield normal numbers. With losses 8.5 to 11 times lower than Russia's, we don't need huge numbers but better quality soldiers." Fedorov is expected to soon scrutinise the quality of Ukraine's top military leadership to address these challenges.
