Seven years after the December revolution that ended three decades of dictatorship, Sudan stands on the brink of irreversible collapse. Three years of conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have pushed the country into the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced.
A roadmap tabled last September by the United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – known as the Quad – now offers a credible path to peace. The plan recognises that neither side can win a total military victory and calls for an immediate and unconditional humanitarian ceasefire, the delivery of urgent aid and the protection of civilians, and a national dialogue to decide how Sudan should be governed.
Critically, the proposal emphasises that these three components must happen simultaneously, not in stages. Previous ceasefires have been ignored by both parties, and a truce without a political process is meaningless. The plan also stresses the need for an independent, civilian-led government, with the question of who governs left to the people.
A ministerial conference in Berlin on 15 April presents an opportunity to unify international efforts behind the Quad's roadmap. The meeting should bring together initiatives from the African Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Arab League, UN and EU to avoid duplication and accelerate progress from truce to humanitarian relief to a civilian-led political process.
Civilian coalitions across Sudan are already stepping up in the absence of a functioning state, delivering food and medicine and coordinating support for peace. The Sudanese have not lost hope, and this plan offers a realistic chance to break the cycle of violence that has plagued the nation for decades.
