A shocking new report from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has projected that unprecedented cuts to international aid will lead to the deaths of an additional 200,000 children under the age of five this year. This grim milestone marks the first time this century that the global child mortality rate has increased, reversing decades of steady progress.
The Human Cost of Funding Withdrawals
The report, compiled with the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, forecasts that by the end of 2025, there will be 4.8 million deaths of children under five, compared to 4.6 million in 2024. This tragic reversal comes after a consistent decline since the year 2000, when the annual toll stood at a staggering 10 million.
The primary driver identified is a sharp reduction in development assistance for health, which has fallen by nearly 27% this year compared to 2024. The most significant cuts originated from the United States. Upon returning to office in January 2025, President Donald Trump cancelled all foreign aid spending overnight. Although some funding was later partially restored, the foundation states the disruption "has absolutely led to lives lost".
Bill Gates, chair of the foundation, expressed profound dismay: "There’s something especially devastating about a child dying of a disease we know how to prevent. For decades, the world made steady progress saving children’s lives. But now, as challenges mount, that progress is reversing." He equated the loss to "more than 5,000 classrooms of children" lost before they learn basic skills.
A Global Retreat with Deadly Consequences
What began with US cuts has triggered a wider retreat among major donor nations, including Britain and Germany. The report warns that if health funding decreases by 20%—aligning with proposed cuts by several nations—an additional 12 million children could die by 2045.
Mark Suzman, CEO of the Gates Foundation, told The Independent: "By far, the largest single cause of death is the cuts in international aid. When you pull back at short notice, that has consequences, and sadly those consequences are measured in human lives." He directly linked the 200,000 additional preventable child deaths to the funding withdrawals.
The consequences are already starkly visible. In July 2025, it was revealed that 500 tonnes of high-energy biscuits meant for 27,000 starving children in Afghanistan and Pakistan were incinerated after the Trump administration shut down the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Democratic Senator Tim Kaine condemned the waste, asking who decided to "let the food expire, and then burn it."
Vaccines, Malaria, and the Path Forward
The report underscores the critical importance of cost-effective interventions. It found that less than $100 per person per year to strengthen healthcare systems could prevent up to 90% of child deaths. Furthermore, every dollar invested in vaccines yields a $54 return for countries.
Malaria remains the world’s biggest killer of children, accounting for over three-quarters of the 600,000 annual malaria deaths. Suzman highlighted the urgent need for a more effective malaria vaccine, calling vaccines the "most transformative tools in global health." However, the US has withdrawn from Gavi, the international vaccine alliance it once heavily funded—an organisation credited with helping immunise 1.2 billion children and preventing over 20 million deaths since 2000.
The Trump administration’s proposed 2026 budget seeks to compound the damage by closing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s global health division, which would dismantle major vaccination programmes for polio, measles, and other infectious diseases.
Suzman issued a direct plea to wealthy nations, urging them to fund proven tools like vaccines and bed nets, which represent a "tiny proportion of their national budgets but have a disproportionate impact in terms of saving lives." The message is clear: the reversal in child mortality is a political choice, and the power to stop it remains in the hands of the world's donors.
