Schools in London could lose £45 million in funding over the next four years as pupil numbers continue to fall, a report by London Councils has warned. The crisis, which has already led to around 90 primary school closures or mergers in the past five years, is now spreading to secondary schools, which are expected to see steep declines in enrolments.
Demand for Year 7 places is forecast to drop by 7.6% over the next four years, while reception places are expected to fall by 6.4%, according to the report. Inner London schools face the sharpest declines. Because schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, falling numbers mean reduced budgets, putting pressure on staff and curriculum offerings.
Councillor Ian Edwards, London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, said: “Maintaining high education standards is the absolute priority for London’s boroughs, but falling pupil numbers are putting real pressure on school budgets.” He added that boroughs are doing all they can locally to manage the situation while protecting the education estate for future needs.
The report estimates that primary schools will face £15 million in funding cuts and secondary schools £30 million. There are concerns that children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send) could be affected if support staff are cut. Schools may also be forced to reduce GCSE options, enrichment activities, and school trips to save money.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the school leaders’ union NAHT, urged the government to protect funding to allow schools to maintain staffing levels, offer smaller classes, and provide targeted help. Daniel Kebede of the National Education Union said the government should embrace the opportunity to cut class sizes and improve education quality.
A Department for Education spokesperson said the government is backing schools with record investment and recognises the pressures from demographic changes. They noted that £37 million is being invested to repurpose spare school space for over 5,000 new childcare places as part of the school-based nurseries rollout.
