Headteachers' unions are sounding the alarm over what they describe as a 'catastrophic' potential funding cut for mainstream schools, following announcements in the recent Budget. The crisis stems from government plans to shift financial responsibility for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) from local councils to the Department for Education.
The Funding Shift and Its Immediate Impact
Starting from the 2028-29 financial year, funding for SEND provision will be moved from local authorities to the central government department. However, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has raised serious concerns, stating that the Government 'has not set out' how this major structural change, with a starting annual cost of £6.3 billion, will be paid for.
The OBR's analysis presents a stark picture for mainstream schools. It warned that if the new SEND costs are funded from within the Department for Education's existing £69 billion core schools budget, the result would be a 1.7 per cent real-terms fall in spending per pupil for mainstream education. This directly contradicts the government's planned 2.4 per cent increase for that period.
Root Causes: Councils in Crisis and Rising Demand
This dramatic policy shift is a direct response to the severe financial pressure many local councils are facing. A significant number are on the brink of financial collapse due to massive overspends on their SEND obligations.
The core of the problem is a sharp and sustained rise in the number of children requiring support. This surge is largely driven by an increase in diagnoses for conditions such as autism and ADHD. The County Councils Network recently revealed that the number of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs)—legal documents mandating council-funded support—has skyrocketed by 80 per cent since 2019.
While the move will relieve councils of future SEND financial responsibilities, it is understood that they may still be left to deal with the existing financial black holes created by past overspending. The OBR highlighted that these cumulative deficits could reach a staggering £14 billion by 2028-29.
Union Reaction and Calls for Government Action
Pepe Di'Iasio, the General Secretary of the ASCL headteachers' union, reacted with strong concern to the OBR's warning. 'We are very concerned to see that the OBR has warned the Government that its plans... would imply a 1.7 per cent real fall in mainstream school spending per pupil,' he stated. He emphasised that 'This would clearly have a catastrophic impact on educational provision' and called on the government to urgently explain how it will address this critical funding gap.
The situation is set to reach a critical point in 2028-29 when a special financial provision known as the 'statutory override' is due to expire. This measure has so far allowed councils to disregard their SEND deficits in their official budgets. Its end will force at least 59 local authorities to formally account for these massive shortfalls, potentially pushing them into immediate effective bankruptcy.
The Government has announced plans to reform the SEND system, with detailed proposals expected in the New Year. It is understood that ministers aim to provide more support directly at the school level, reserving EHCPs for only the highest-needs cases. This comes amid reports, including from the Daily Mail, that children with profound needs are facing years-long waits for essential support due to overwhelming backlogs in the EHCP system.
