New official projections indicate the prison population in England and Wales is on course to reach the landmark figure of 100,000 inmates, but a year later than previously estimated. The revised forecast from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) comes amid ongoing emergency measures to tackle severe overcrowding in the penal system.
Revised Projections and the Driving Factors
The estimates, published on Thursday 4 December 2025, project the number of prisoners will rise to between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030, with a central estimate of 100,600. This marks a shift from last year's forecast, which anticipated the population hitting between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029.
The MoJ stated the anticipated increase is driven by a continued rise in police charges and prosecutions, more cases reaching the courts, and a growing number of offenders being recalled to custody. However, the department also found the projected population is now around 2,400 lower than previously thought by September 2028.
This difference is attributed largely to the impact of recent sentencing policy measures, including the emergency early release scheme initiated to alleviate overcrowding. Since September last year, thousands of prisoners have been freed early, with nearly 40,000 criminals released under the scheme by the end of June this year.
A System Under "Horrendous Strain"
The pressure on prisons has been starkly illustrated by a series of high-profile mistaken releases, described as a symptom of a system under "horrendous strain". In October, the case of Hadush Kebatu, freed in error, prompted a major police manhunt. MoJ data shows 91 accidental releases occurred between April and October this year, with Justice Secretary David Lammy revealing a further 12 mistaken releases in the past month, two of whom remain at large.
As of 1 December this year, the prison population stood at 87,603, which is 1,458 below the record high of 88,521 reached on 6 September 2024. The MoJ cautioned that its projections involve "considerable uncertainty," influenced by future crime trends, police activity, court backlogs, and sentencing behaviour.
Long-Term Reforms and the Court Backlog Crisis
The impact of the Sentencing Bill currently going through Parliament is not included in the latest figures. The proposed legislation includes a Texas-inspired earned release scheme and plans for 14,000 new prison places by 2031. Meanwhile, the government has begun work on a new prison and built 2,600 places since last July.
These projections follow Justice Secretary Lammy's announcement on Tuesday of further changes to overhaul the courts system and cut the record-high backlog of more than 78,000 crown court cases. The MoJ's figures suggest this backlog could reach a high estimate of 125,000 by the end of the current Parliament.
"These figures set out the true scale of the court emergency we face – without bold reform the backlog is only going to go up. We simply cannot sit our way out of this crisis," Lammy stated. Prisons minister Lord Timpson added that building alone would not end the crisis, emphasising the need for sentencing reform to protect the public.
The House of Commons Justice Committee warned last month that the crisis in prisons, characterised by overcrowding, staff shortages, and poor conditions, is undermining efforts to cut reoffending rates across England and Wales.
