In an exclusive interview marking the 50th anniversary of the first supersonic passenger flights, Captain Jock Lowe, the former chief pilot of the British Airways Concorde fleet, has delivered a sobering prediction. He believes the world will need to wait until around 2050 before passenger aircraft break the sound barrier again, citing a complex web of technological, economic, and environmental hurdles.
A Legacy of Speed and Exhilaration
Reflecting on the maiden passenger flights on 21 January 1976, when British Airways departed London Heathrow for Bahrain and Air France left Paris CDG for Rio via Dakar, Captain Lowe's admiration for Concorde remains undimmed. "From the very first moment it was sheer exhilaration and fun," he recalls. "When you flew the aircraft it was incredibly responsive. If you were a keen pilot, you got all the feedback you could ever want from the power and controllability. The analogy I often use is going from a bus to a racing car."
The iconic aircraft enjoyed a commercial lifespan of 27 years, with Air France ceasing operations in May 2003 and British Airways following in October of that year. "During that time we made a lot of money," Lowe notes. "Many people finally decided to fly Concorde because they realised it was their last chance."
The Daunting Challenges Ahead
Despite ongoing efforts by entrepreneurs, such as Denver-based Boom Supersonic which has tested a small supersonic aircraft, Captain Lowe outlines significant barriers to a widespread return:
- Noise Pollution: Issues with noise on take-off and landing, particularly over land or water, spark environmental and political objections.
- Economic Viability: The colossal costs of development, certification, and meeting modern safety standards present a formidable financial challenge.
- Environmental Impact: While 14 Concordes had a limited effect, hundreds of supersonic aircraft could create serious emissions issues in the upper atmosphere where atmospheric circulation is minimal.
- Limited Range: Compared to modern subsonic aircraft, range limitations remain a practical concern.
"My prediction is that if it ever happens, it will be China," Lowe speculates, "so they can fly supersonically from cities like Shanghai, Beijing or Hong Kong to the US West Coast. I’d say around 2050."
Industry Voices Echo Caution
Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, concurs with the sceptical outlook. He points to the current efficiency of new long-haul aircraft technology and the operation of narrow-body aircraft on thinner routes. "I don't think people are willing to pay the premium to shave two or three hours off these transatlantic or longhaul flights," O’Leary states. "So I think it's unlikely."
However, not all industry figures dismiss the concept entirely. Larry Mueller, co-founder and CEO of luxury lodge enterprise Cuvée, believes a strong demand exists for a Concorde replacement, particularly in the realm of supersonic private jets. A veteran Concorde passenger from his time running IBM’s European operations, Mueller told The Independent’s travel podcast: "I know many people in this world that would love to have a private jet that could fly at those speeds. The issue is the environmental issues associated with it. Hopefully through technology and other ways that can be dealt with."
He fondly remembers the experience: "It was all about speed and it was about the convenience and it was also about them taking care of you as a first-class passenger."
The Enduring Value of Subsonic Travel
Ultimately, Captain Lowe believes that for the foreseeable future, subsonic air travel will adequately meet global needs. He suggests the historical focus on aircraft like the Boeing 747 was prudent. "The Americans were right to focus on the Jumbo rather than supersonic travel," he asserts. "Price matters. Getting people where they want to go matters. The Earth is relatively small, and a few extra hours rarely make a dramatic difference."
His concluding reflection offers a balanced perspective on Concorde's legacy: "Supersonic flight was a fantastic experience – but we won’t miss it as much as some think." The journey back to breaking the sound barrier with passengers on board appears set to be a long and challenging one, stretching potentially another quarter of a century.
