The European Union has issued a stark warning to civilian airlines, urging them to avoid the airspace over Iran due to a dramatically increased risk of military miscalculation.
Heightened Alert and Risk of Misidentification
The warning, issued by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on Friday 16 January 2026, cites a 'high risk' of passenger planes being wrongly identified as military targets. The regulator stated that the threat of potential US military action has placed Iranian air defence systems on a heightened state of alert.
This tense environment, EASA explained, significantly raises the chance of a civilian aircraft being misidentified as an attacking force. 'The presence and possible use of a wide range of weapons and air-defence systems, combined with unpredictable state responses... creates a high risk to civil flights,' the agency's bulletin stated.
Trump's Threats and Iran's Internal Unrest
The warning follows escalating rhetoric from former US President Donald Trump, who has not ruled out launching strikes against Iran. Trump has warned that the United States would attack if Tehran did not halt its brutal suppression of widespread anti-government protests.
Protesters within Iran have reportedly latched onto Trump's previous message that 'help is on its way', though no external intervention has materialised. The situation remains volatile, with US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stating on Thursday that Trump had 'made it clear all options are on the table'.
Implications for Global Aviation
The directive from EASA forces airlines to reroute flights, potentially leading to longer journey times and increased operational costs. The primary concern, however, remains the safety of passengers and crew.
Key factors contributing to the elevated threat level include:
- The dense concentration of advanced air-defence systems in the region.
- The potential for rapid, automated responses from these systems.
- The overarching climate of political and military uncertainty.
This advisory underscores how geopolitical tensions can have immediate and tangible consequences for international travel and aviation security, placing global carriers on high alert for developments in the Persian Gulf.
