Donald Trump's first year back in the White House has been a whirlwind of radical policy shifts, leaving allies thrilled and critics aghast as the political world struggles to keep pace. With 2025 now concluded, the president faces a make-or-break second year where his legacy—and his party's congressional majorities—will be put to the test in a pivotal midterm referendum.
The Tariff Engine: Reshaping Trade and Decoupling from China
The centrepiece of Trump's transformative agenda has been an aggressive "reciprocal" tariff policy. Throughout the spring and summer of 2025, his administration sparked major trade disputes, notably with China, threatening key industries like U.S. soybeans while also levying threats against Canada and the European Union.
Conservatives argue the strategy is bearing fruit. "The trade deficit with China narrowing is a big deal," contended Curt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative magazine. He suggested that, after initial fears, the tariffs now "look way more like a success" and that experts who predicted economic disaster were mistaken.
A primary goal, according to allies, is the decoupling of the U.S. economy from China. Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the Heritage Foundation stated, "It's just important not to be depending so much on a country that's not friendly to us." She acknowledged the effort is not costless but deemed it a worthwhile foreign policy and economic objective.
This agenda faces a crucial legal test, with the Supreme Court set to rule on the president's authority to levy tariffs without Congressional approval. Regardless of the outcome, supporters believe a significant shift away from Chinese reliance is already underway.
Domestic Focus: Immigration Enforcement and Political Fallout
With thin congressional majorities stymying legislative ambitions, the administration's domestic focus has sharpened on immigration. ICE raids and deportations have dominated headlines, a situation intensified by the January 2026 killing of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis.
Despite the controversy, Trump's approval on immigration and border security remains high among Republicans, with many in his base linking the expulsion of immigrants to improved economic conditions. Curt Mills argued the administration had "non-controversially closed the border" to illegal crossings, making the Biden-era levels of migration look like a scandal.
The tactics, largely directed by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, have reportedly managed to control crossings with a degree of bipartisan support in Congress.
Gunboat Diplomacy and the 2026 Referendum
On the global stage, Trump's second-term foreign policy has blended deal-making with dramatic intervention, dismaying some "America First" isolationists. His active role in Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza peace processes was followed by the most striking action: the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
While this operation drew rare bipartisan praise in Washington, it polls poorly with the American public. Nearly 60% oppose the U.S. dictating Venezuelan policy, a move critics label "gunboat diplomacy."
As 2026 begins, the survival of Republican majorities in the House and Senate hinges on Trump's ability to motivate his 2024 voters. However, the president's engagement is in question; reports suggest he has no plans to endorse in key Senate races, even as House Republicans fret about potential electoral disaster.
Between the radical overhaul of trade policy, a sweeping immigration crackdown, and the rapid transformation of federal agencies, Donald Trump has demonstrated that a president can sculpt a vast legacy almost unilaterally. The coming year will determine whether that legacy is one voters choose to endorse or decisively reject.
