Vladimir Putin is on a charm offensive in Beijing for his 25th meeting with President Xi Jinping, just days after Donald Trump's historic return to China. The Russian president's two-day visit focuses on economic cooperation, particularly energy deals, as Moscow seeks to offset Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Trump left China last week with promises of smoother trade but few concrete commitments on tariffs and rare earths. Russia has increased trade with China, while the US has imposed tariffs to reduce dependence on its rival. Both nations, however, rely heavily on China's $20.85 trillion economy.
Russia: China as Senior Partner
Russia's economy, under sanctions and war debt, has not collapsed as predicted. It rose from 11th to 9th largest economy globally since the Ukraine conflict began. The war initially boosted industry, but long-term growth is uncertain as public services and manpower dwindle. China has capitalized on Western sanctions, buying cheap energy and supporting Russia. Oil and gas now make up 75% of Russia's exports to China, up from 60-65% pre-2022. In 2015, Russia exported $33.2 billion in goods to China; by 2024, that reached $129.32 billion—a 289% increase. China is now Russia's top oil client, with exports up 35% in early 2026. A new pipeline is under discussion. China imports Russian energy and exports cars, tractors, and household goods, with imports from China rising from $34.8 billion in 2015 to $115.49 billion in 2024.
United States: Politicized but Interdependent
Trump's visit aimed to stabilize trade amid the Iran war's impact on global energy. US tariffs on Chinese goods, initiated in 2018 and expanded in 2025, now average 48%, up from 3% in 2016. Despite this, China remains the US's largest trading partner. In 2025, US imports from China totaled $331.58 billion (goods and services), while exports were $162.96 billion. US imports fell 39% from 2024 due to tariffs. China leverages its control over rare earth minerals, producing 90% of the world's processed rare earths, vital for technologies from EVs to military hardware. After the summit, both sides agreed to a "constructive relationship of strategic stability," with China addressing rare earth supply concerns and the US reducing some tariffs, though details remain vague.
As politics intertwines with economics, Putin appears most vulnerable, dependent on China's goodwill amid Western isolation.
