In a significant geopolitical shift, Mexico has positioned itself as a crucial provider of fuel to Cuba. This development comes as the United States prepares to seize control of Venezuelan oil and hardens its approach towards the Caribbean island nation.
A Delicate Balancing Act for Mexico
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged on Wednesday, 7 January 2026, that her country has become an important crude oil supplier to Havana due to the "current situation in Venezuela." However, she was quick to assert that "no more oil is being sent than has been sent historically; there is no specific shipment." She stated these exports are conducted either through commercial contracts or classified as humanitarian aid, though she did not provide specific barrel figures.
This new role places Mexico in a potentially precarious position with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which has taken an increasingly tough line against Cuba. The U.S. trade embargo, imposed after the 1959 revolution and the nationalisation of American-owned property, has long been a source of tension, with Mexico being among its consistent critics.
Examining the Numbers and the Opacity
Data reveals the scale of this energy relationship. According to a report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) shipped an average of 19,200 barrels per day to Cuba from January to 30 September 2025. This figure comprised 17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of refined products.
Independent analyst Jorge Piñón from the University of Texas at Austin's Energy Institute corroborated similar data, having tracked around 22,000 barrels per day for the same period. He noted a significant drop to approximately 7,000 barrels daily following a visit to Mexico City by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in September 2025. For context, Piñón's data showed that Venezuela, under Nicolás Maduro, exported an average of 35,000 barrels a day to Cuba in the preceding three months, covering about a quarter of the island's total demand.
Experts point to a lack of transparency in these dealings. Since 2023, shipments have been handled by a private Pemex subsidiary called Gasolinas Bienestar. Oscar Ocampo of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness noted the subsidiary's financial situation "is not transparent," which "incentivises opacity." While Pemex's SEC report valued the Cuba shipments at roughly $400 million in market-price sales, Ocampo questions whether they were truly at full price or involved discounted rates with a potential quid pro quo, such as the deployment of Cuban medical professionals.
Historical Precedent and Future Pressure
Mexico has a history of aiding Cuba during energy crises. Following widespread protests in Cuba in 2021, Mexico sent one of its largest humanitarian aid shipments, including 100,000 barrels of fuel. Again, in October 2024, it dispatched over 400,000 barrels in a matter of days after serious blackouts hit the island.
Looking ahead, analysts see little chance of Mexico increasing its shipments. "The U.S. government would go bonkers," remarked Jorge Piñón. Oscar Ocampo concurred, predicting that "there will be more pressure from the United States regarding Cuba," and oil will undoubtedly be a primary focus. This comes as Pemex faces its own challenges, with 2025 projected to be a year of record-low crude exports for the company.
The situation underscores the complex interplay of energy, diplomacy, and longstanding regional alliances, with Mexico cautiously navigating its role as a lifeline for Cuba amidst intensifying U.S. sanctions.
