Grocery price inflation has risen to 4.3% in February, marking a significant reversal after four consecutive months of declines, according to the latest data from market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator. This increase from January's 4% rate delivers a fresh blow to households already grappling with elevated living costs.
Valentine's Day Spending Patterns Revealed
The inflation uptick coincided with shoppers holding off on Valentine's Day purchases until the final moments. Nearly 12% of households purchased a premium meal deal on Friday night alone. Despite this last-minute approach, consumers ultimately spent a collective £39 million on high-end meal deals priced at £10 or more - representing a sevenfold increase compared to the previous week.
Shrove Tuesday and Easter Trends
In the lead-up to Shrove Tuesday, sales of pre-made pancake mixes surged by 114% week-on-week. However, those opting to make their own batter faced higher costs, paying 42p (approximately 6%) more than last year as the price of key ingredients reached £7.77.
Looking ahead to Easter, shoppers will encounter persistently high chocolate prices, which remain up 9.3% year-on-year. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, noted: "While this is still a significant rise, the pace of inflation in the category is beginning to ease and is now at its lowest level since September 2025."
Online Grocery Shopping Surges
Shoppers increasingly turned to digital channels for their grocery needs, with online sales growing by 9.7% year-on-year. More than 18 million orders were placed over the four-week period, pushing the channel's market share to 13% - the highest level recorded since July 2021.
Mr McKevitt added: "More affluent families in London and the south east of England are still the most likely to shop for groceries online. However, the channel's appeal is broadening, with shoppers from a wider range of economic backgrounds increasingly drawn to its convenience."
Retailer Performance Highlights
Ocado maintained its position as the fastest-growing grocer over the 12 weeks to February 22, a distinction it has held since September 2025. Lidl recorded double-digit sales growth for the 12th consecutive period, achieving a 10% increase this time.
Tesco saw sales grow by 4.5%, reaching a market share of 28.5%, while Sainsbury's increased its market share to 16.1% as sales rose by 5.2% over the 12-week period. Waitrose achieved its highest growth rate since March 2021 at 5.6%, reaching a market share of 4.8%.
In contrast, Asda experienced another year-on-year sales decline of 2.6%, while Co-op's sales decreased by 1.6% compared to February of the previous year.
