After enduring years of challenging conditions, prospective homebuyers across the United States may finally find some relief in 2026, according to a major new forecast from real estate marketplace Zillow. The company's latest analysis predicts a healthier housing market this year, offering buyers more breathing room and an opportunity to regain some leverage in transactions.
A Diverging National Outlook
However, Zillow emphasises that the outlook is far from uniform across the country. While some metropolitan areas are transitioning towards more balanced conditions, others continue to present significant hurdles. Markets like Hartford, Connecticut, are still grappling with critically tight inventory levels and fierce buyer competition. In other regions, persistently high costs continue to keep many potential purchasers on the sidelines, unable to enter the market.
The Top Buyer-Friendly Metros
Zillow's comprehensive research has identified the metropolitan areas where buyers are most likely to come out ahead in 2026. Topping the list is Indianapolis, which offers a rare and advantageous mix of relative affordability, strong potential for home-value growth, and less crowded, competitive conditions. Close behind are the dynamic southern hubs of Atlanta and Charlotte, with Jacksonville and Oklahoma City completing the top five most favourable markets.
Zillow's full ranking of the ten most buyer-friendly markets for 2026 is:
- Indianapolis
- Atlanta
- Charlotte
- Jacksonville
- Oklahoma City
- Memphis
- Detroit
- Miami
- Tampa
- Pittsburgh
How Zillow Measures Buyer Friendliness
The company's methodology for determining market friendliness weighed three critical factors. Firstly, analysts looked for a short-term cooling in home price growth coupled with solid projected future gains. Secondly, they assessed the affordability of typical monthly mortgage payments relative to local median household incomes. Finally, they measured competitive market heat through metrics like the average days a property spends on the market and the prevalence of price reductions.
Markets that performed well across these categories present a more balanced mix of opportunity and long-term financial sustainability for purchasers. Notably, most of the top ten buyer-friendly cities are located in the Midwest and the Sun Belt regions. These areas either avoided the most extreme pandemic-era price surges or have benefited from increased construction activity boosting inventory levels, which helps to temper competition.
The Affordability Threshold
Zillow's data reveals a key affordability benchmark: in five of these top ten metropolitan areas, a typical home mortgage payment would consume less than 30 percent of the median household income. This 30 percent figure is a standard threshold widely used by economists and housing experts to gauge housing cost burden and overall affordability.
America's Hottest Housing Markets
In a contrasting forecast, Zillow predicts that Hartford will be the nation's single hottest housing market in 2026, surpassing Buffalo, New York, which had held the top position for the previous two years. Providence, Rhode Island, and the tech-centric hub of San Jose, California, are also expected to be among the top five most competitive markets. In these metros, buyers should anticipate very few price cuts, exceptionally fast-moving listings, and robust price appreciation.
Hartford's Extreme Inventory Crunch
Hartford, in particular, stands out for its extraordinarily tight inventory situation. The city has the fewest homes available for sale compared to pre-pandemic levels among all major U.S. markets, with inventory still down a staggering 63 percent. This severe scarcity is a clear indicator of the intense competition awaiting buyers in the region.
These competitive conditions are vividly reflected in recent sales data. Throughout 2025, more than 66 percent of homes sold in the Hartford metropolitan area transacted above the original listing price, representing the highest share observed across all major U.S. metropolitan areas. This statistic underscores the premium buyers are willing to pay and the speed at which properties are moving in this high-pressure environment.
