A US trader appears to have made substantial profits after betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which was announced by Donald Trump on Saturday. The trader reportedly invested $30,000 on the prediction market Polymarket, wagering that Maduro would be out of power by 31 January 2026. Following the news, the bet yielded a profit of $436,759.61, according to data from the platform.
Prediction markets, which allow individuals to bet on binary outcomes such as yes/no events, have seen a surge in popularity in the US. The volume of bets on such platforms grew from under $100m in early 2024 to over $13bn, according to a report from crypto firms Dune and Keyrock. Polymarket and Kalshi are among the best-known companies, with Donald Trump Jr taking advisory roles at both.
Data from Polymarket showed that the implied probability of Maduro no longer being president by the end of January rose sharply on Saturday morning. At 3pm GMT on 2 January, the chance was 5.5%, but by 7.30am on 3 January it had reached 56.5%, and by 9.30am it was nearly 99%. A related market on Maduro being in US custody by 31 January also saw prescient trades at low probabilities before jumping to above 0.99.
Prediction markets are not a new concept. Nearly 26 years ago, Flutter.com was launched in the UK by American entrepreneurs, allowing low-stakes bets between individuals. The idea did not take off in Britain, and the company was soon taken over by Betfair.
