An anonymous trader has secured a colossal profit of approximately $410,000 (£320,000) after placing successful bets on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, an event that also sent shockwaves through global financial markets.
The Lucrative Bet and Market Reaction
According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, the individual's account held contracts tied to Maduro's ousting. These wagers, initially valued at around $34,000, skyrocketed in value following reports of a US military operation that led to the Venezuelan leader's capture on Monday, 5 January 2026.
The geopolitical shock prompted immediate financial repercussions. Major stock indexes and oil prices climbed, with energy shares recording significant gains. Most strikingly, Venezuela's default-ridden government bonds and those of its state oil company, PDVSA, surged by as much as 10 cents on the dollar, equating to a near 30% jump. This rally was fuelled by investor anticipation of a large-scale sovereign debt restructuring.
Scrutiny and Calls for Regulation
The windfall is likely to attract intense scrutiny from US lawmakers, who have been advocating for stricter rules against insider trading. Democratic congressman Ritchie Torres announced plans to introduce a bill this week that would prohibit elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees from placing bets on prediction markets where they might have access to material non-public information.
This incident highlights ongoing concerns about potential insider activity on platforms like Polymarket. The anonymous account in question was created just last month, with the trader first purchasing $96 worth of contracts on 27 December that would pay out if the US invaded Venezuela by 31 January. Several similar bets followed in the ensuing days.
How Prediction Markets Operate
Platforms such as Polymarket allow users to trade yes-or-no contracts on real-world events spanning politics, economics, and entertainment. Contracts are priced between a few cents and one dollar. When an event occurs, the contract settles at $1, enabling traders with advance knowledge to reap enormous profits in a short timeframe.
Polymarket, which acquired the CFTC-licensed QCEX for $112 million in September, recently gained approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to relaunch domestic operations. The CFTC has not commented on whether it is investigating the trades related to Maduro's capture. Although the main platform is currently restricted for US users, many circumvent the ban using VPNs.
The company itself did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding this specific high-profile trade.
