Britain is projected to have ample gas supplies to satisfy the needs of households and businesses throughout the summer of 2026, even as escalating conflict in the Middle East drives significant price increases in global energy markets. The country's gas system operator, National Gas, has affirmed that gas stocks in Great Britain are set to be sufficient, with the potential for some British gas to be exported to mainland Europe.
Market Volatility and Price Surges
This announcement coincides with National Gas releasing its summer 2026 outlook against a backdrop of heightened volatility. Oil and gas prices have climbed sharply since late February following clashes between US-Israeli and Iranian forces. For instance, UK natural gas futures rose to approximately 120.7 pence per therm on Monday, a notable increase from around 78 pence per therm before the conflict intensified.
Supply Chain Disruptions
The instability has led to several liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East being targeted by missiles. Additionally, exports from the region have faced severe disruption due to issues in the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. National Gas emphasised that Britain's gas requirements will primarily be fulfilled by supplies extracted from the UK Continental Shelf and imports from Norway.
Diverse Supply Sources
Around 86% of total gas supply, equating to 25.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), is expected to originate from these sources. National Gas stated it anticipates this volume will be enough to exceed forecast demand from Great Britain and gas exported to Ireland. Nevertheless, the operator added that approximately 5% of total supply will also come from flexible gas storage, and around 9% will be sourced from LNG imports.
Forecast Resilience
These forecasts were prepared prior to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, but National Gas has reviewed its analysis since and concluded that the market is still expected to have sufficient capacity and capability to meet projections. Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, commented: “While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer.”
He further noted: “The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.”
Demand Projections and Energy Mix
Demand for gas is forecast to be similar to summer 2025, according to the projections. National Gas expects a roughly 6% reduction in gas demand used for electricity generation but said this will be largely offset by an expected 2% rise in non-daily metered demand from residential and commercial consumers.
Critical Role of Gas in Electricity System
Ian Radley, chief commercial officer at National Gas, highlighted: “Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months. As renewable output fluctuates, gas‑fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly, and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably.”
He stressed the importance of ongoing, coordinated action between Government, industry, and regulators to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports. This statement aligns with broader political contexts, such as Labour leader Keir Starmer's promises to accelerate renewable energy initiatives amid the Iran conflict, underscoring the interconnected nature of energy security and policy.
