Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supplies to meet the demands of households and businesses this summer despite a significant surge in prices driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to National Gas, the country's gas system operator.
National Gas confirmed that Great Britain's gas stocks are projected to be sufficient, even allowing for some exports to mainland Europe, as it unveiled its outlook for summer 2026 against a volatile backdrop for global energy markets.
Oil and gas prices have climbed sharply since late February following clashes between US-Israeli and Iranian forces. UK natural gas futures rose to around 120.7 pence per therm on Monday, up from about 78 pence per therm before the escalation. Instability has also disrupted LNG production in Qatar and other Middle Eastern facilities, and exports have faced severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
National Gas emphasised that Britain's gas requirements will primarily be fulfilled by supplies from the UK Continental Shelf and Norway, which together are expected to provide around 86% of total supply (25.3 bcm). The operator said this volume will exceed forecast demand from Great Britain and exports to Ireland, with around 5% coming from flexible gas storage and around 9% from LNG imports.
Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer. The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility.”
Demand is forecast to be similar to summer 2025, with a roughly 6% reduction in gas for electricity generation offset by a 2% rise in residential and commercial consumption. Ian Radley, chief commercial officer, added: “Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months. It is important that ongoing, co-ordinated action between Government, industry and regulators continues to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports.”
