The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the conflict in Iran could have a “very significant” impact on the UK economy, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her spring statement. The independent forecaster projected that UK unemployment will peak higher than previously feared, while the tax take heads for a record high of 38.5% of GDP by 2030-31.
Reeves insisted the government has “the right economic plan” despite downgrading growth for this year to 1.1%, down from the previous forecast of 1.4%. However, headroom against fiscal rules has increased slightly, though economists caution this could be wiped out by surging energy prices following the Middle East crisis.
Oil prices rose 6.2% to $82.55 a barrel, while UK month-ahead gas prices jumped 21% to a three-year high. Stock markets fell globally, with the FTSE 100 recording its biggest one-day fall in 11 months, dropping 2.75%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 550 points.
Separately, Reach plc, owner of the Mirror, Express, and Star, saw its share price plunge over 12% after reporting a 46% year-on-year decline in traffic from Google in the second half of its financial year. Chief executive Piers North said the traffic headwinds have continued into 2026, with AI-driven changes to search potentially altering the internet landscape.
