Global Energy Shock Drives Nuclear Power Expansion
A significant global energy shock, directly stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran, is driving a substantial shift toward nuclear power generation across Africa and Asia. This crisis is even spurring atomic energy ambitions in nations that previously had no such programmes, as countries scramble to secure their energy futures.
Immediate Responses and Long-Term Ambitions
Asia, a primary destination for Middle Eastern oil and natural gas, was among the first and most severely impacted by disruptions to vital shipping routes. Africa swiftly followed suit, with the ripple effect also being felt in the United States and Europe, where energy costs are escalating dramatically.
Nations in Africa and Asia that already operate nuclear plants are now aggressively increasing their output in a desperate scramble for immediate energy supplies. Concurrently, non-nuclear countries are accelerating their long-term atomic energy plans, seeking to safeguard against future fossil fuel price volatility and supply disruptions.
However, nuclear power is not a rapid solution to the current energy crisis. Developing atomic energy infrastructure can span decades, particularly for countries new to the technology. Despite this significant timeline, experts note that current long-term commitments to nuclear power are likely to embed it firmly within these nations' future energy mixes for generations to come.
Asia's Nuclear Power Advancements
In Asia, where energy triage efforts range from increased coal use to purchases of Russian crude oil, countries with nuclear plants are seeking to maximise output from their existing reactors. South Korea is significantly increasing generation at its nuclear plants and speeding up maintenance at five offline reactors, with restarts planned for May.
Taiwan and Japan are reversing policies that shuttered nuclear sites following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown. Taiwan is actively considering the years-long process of restarting two reactors, which will require meticulous inspections, safety checks, and control system verifications due to the current crisis.
In Japan, since the start of the war, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has signed a substantial $40 billion reactor deal with the United States, a nuclear fuel recycling agreement with France, and promised Indonesia nuclear cooperation. Japan restarted the world's largest nuclear plant, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa site, in January of this year.
In South Asia, Bangladesh is racing to activate new reactors built by Russia's state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom. Dhaka hopes they will supply the national grid with 300 megawatts by this summer, relieving some pressure from current gas shortfalls. Meanwhile, Vietnam signed a deal with Moscow in March for two Russian-designed reactors.
The Philippines, which recently declared a national energy emergency, is also considering reviving a nuclear plant built in the aftermath of the 1973 oil crisis but was never turned on. The Iran war is providing a needed push for nuclear energy adoption across the region.
Africa's Atomic Energy Aspirations
Soaring energy prices and power shortages in Africa, triggered by the Iran war, are leading to public calls for nuclear cooperation and re-invigorated interest in long-term nuclear energy plans. These plans are currently underway in more than twenty of the fifty-four African countries, marking a significant continental shift.
With Africa seen as an atomic energy growth market, nuclear nations including the United States, Russia, China, France, and South Korea are pitching advanced technology such as small modular reactors as a solution to energy shortages. These modular reactors represent a cheaper, more compact alternative to large-scale plants.
Proponents tout them as a faster option, but projects can still take years. Kenya, for instance, plans to bring a small modular reactor online in 2034 after starting the first phase in 2009. During a March summit convened by the UN's nuclear watchdog agency, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said Africa will be one of the most important global markets for these smaller reactors in the years ahead.
South Africa, which has the continent's only existing nuclear plants, wants nuclear to increase from making around 5% of its energy mix now to 16% by 2040. Smaller reactors, which can offer scalable, low-emitting base load power, are considered a potential solution to Africa's rising electricity demand, weak grids, and over-reliance on imported diesel.
Geopolitical Competition and Nuclear Providers
The energy disruptions come as competition for influence in Africa intensifies between Washington and Moscow. Russia's Rosatom is building Egypt's first reactor and has cooperation agreements with Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania, and Niger, spanning major projects, research centers, uranium processing facilities, and training programs.
While only Kenya and Ghana have joined an American-led modular reactor initiative, Washington is trying to catch up. The United States and South Korea sponsored a nuclear conference in Nairobi last month, with American officials stating they are working with African nations to rapidly develop secure and safe civil nuclear reactors.
Persistent Risks and Renewable Alternatives
Risks like meltdowns and mismanaged radioactive waste remain significant concerns, even as global interest in nuclear energy builds. Nuclear energy programmes could also potentially be a step toward building nuclear weapons, adding another layer of geopolitical complexity.
Advocates for renewable energy argue that solar and wind power make more sense for long-term energy affordability and security. Given that nuclear sectors take years to develop, some experts suggest governments should stay focused on building out renewables for sustainable long-term energy security.
Furthermore, nuclear plants are vulnerable during conflicts, with recent instances where reactors were specifically targeted during the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine War. All of these factors come into the complex mix of how nations think about energy security in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, there are currently thirty-one countries that use nuclear power, which provides about ten per cent of global electricity. The agency reports that another forty nations are either considering the technology or preparing to build a plant, indicating a potential global nuclear renaissance driven by current geopolitical and energy market realities.
