The European Union purchased a record amount of gas from Russia's largest natural gas project in the first four months of the year, as the Iran war forces Europe back towards the fuel it has been trying to phase out.
The EU received 91 cargoes from Russia's Yamal LNG project between January and April, totalling 6.69 million tonnes – the highest volume for that period since the project was launched in December 2017, according to new analysis of shipping data published on Thursday by environmental group Urgewald. The bloc paid an estimated €3.88bn (£3.25bn) for the gas over the four months, based on benchmark market prices.
The demand for Russian oil and gas has skyrocketed worldwide since the Iran war began. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has removed significant volumes of liquefied natural gas from global markets. The strait normally carries around a fifth of global LNG flows, leaving Europe with fewer alternatives and pushing benchmark gas prices sharply higher.
The TTF price, Europe's gas benchmark, jumped from around €35 per megawatt hour (£29.30 MWh) in January and February to €52.87 (£44.25) in March, inflating the value of every Russian cargo Europe was buying. April prices averaged €45.21 per MWh (£37.82). The result is that Europe is not only buying more Russian gas, it is also paying significantly more for each cargo than it was at the start of the year.
"Europe has never imported this much LNG from Yamal in the first four months of the year since Putin launched the project in 2017," said Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald. "For three months in a row, every Yamal cargo that reached its final destination went to Europe. It shows that Europe keeps Russia's Arctic LNG business alive."
The scale of Europe's dependence on Yamal is increasing, data shows. The EU took 98 per cent of all Yamal exports between January and April – for three consecutive months, every single cargo that reached its final destination went to the EU, according to the analysis by Urgewald.
China, which Russia has spent years cultivating as an alternative customer, received only two cargoes in the first quarter and none at all in February or March, according to reports. The Yamal project's reliance on Europe is also structural. The project depends on a small fleet of specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers capable of navigating heavy Arctic sea ice, and these vessels need fast turnaround times at European ports during the most operationally constrained months.
Belgium's Zeebrugge terminal has been the busiest entry point, receiving 25 cargoes in the first four months – roughly one tanker every 4.8 days. Without European ports, annual Yamal shipments could fall from around 270 cargoes to as few as 120 to 130, analysts estimate.
Imports were also inflated by a rush to stock up ahead of new EU sanctions. Restrictions on short-term Russian LNG contracts came into force on 25 April, prompting European traders to complete the largest single monthly purchase of Russian LNG ever recorded in March.
A full ban on long-term contracts is due to take effect from January 2027. Urgewald's analysis shows that despite these measures, long-term contracts remain the core loophole allowing Russian gas to keep flowing in bulk to Europe.
“The EU's ban on LNG imports via short-term contracts is a step forward, but long-term contracts remain the core problem. As long as these exist, Europe will continue sending money to a Russian gas project that doesn't have a lucrative future without the EU,” Mr Rötters said.
Vladimir Slivyak, co-chair of Russian environmental group Ecodefense, said the timing made the continued purchases particularly damaging to efforts to pressure Moscow. "Russia is under enormous economic pressure. Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil industry are exposing real vulnerabilities in the Kremlin's war economy. At this critical moment for the Kremlin, the EU still holds the reins over one of Moscow's key sources of revenue," he said. "But instead of cutting this source of income off and creating huge economic and reputational headaches for Putin, the EU imports record volumes of LNG from Yamal.
“If Europe wants this terrible war to end sooner, it should support the Ukrainian efforts to cut Russia’s main sources of income as soon as possible.”
EU's energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, has ruled out reconsidering the ban timetable despite the energy crisis, telling Politico in March, “we should not again ever import as much as one molecule”.
But without closing the long-term contract loophole sooner, analysts say the bulk of Russian Arctic LNG will continue reaching Europe. The bloc is bracing for a more expensive gas refilling season this summer, exposed to price volatility from both the continued Hormuz disruption and the partial restrictions on Russian spot purchases now in force.
