It is easy to look at Labour’s disastrous election results across the UK and conclude that this is a wholesale rejection of Keir Starmer’s premiership. The problem for the party is that this is also a wholesale rejection of the pretenders to Sir Keir’s crown.
Rejection of Starmer and His Rivals
The top contenders to replace him as Labour leader, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, have also been dealt a humiliating rejection by voters. Across the north west of England, where Mr Burnham is the Greater Manchester mayor, voters turned from Labour to Reform.
Notably in Wigan, the seat of one of his chief allies, culture secretary Lisa Nandy, Reform snatched all seats from Labour that were up for contention. But the humiliation in the north west was also bad news for Ms Rayner. In the Tameside Council area, where her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency is located next to the Gorton and Denton Westminster seat, where Labour came a dreadful third in the by-election in February, saw 16 out of the 17 available seats go to Reform. This was not an endorsement of her pretensions to be Labour leader and prime minister – just the opposite.
So while Britain has rejected Starmerism, it is also busy saying “none of the above” for the alternatives for Labour leader.
Streeting's Precarious Position
In London’s Redbridge, health secretary Wes Streeting is hopeful the party can hold on to the council where his Ilford North seat is located. But even at Labour’s high point in the general election in 2024, he only just held on against a challenge from the pro-Gaza Independents by a few hundred votes.
Nevertheless, beyond providing comfort to defeated councillors in their constituencies, the one question that will trouble Labour MPs is how and when to change leader and prime minister. It is clear now that the unpopularity of this prime minister, with his reputation and authority shattered over issues like the Peter Mandelson scandal and the welfare rebellion, is dragging his party further into the gutter.
The Leadership Dilemma
Few Labour MPs privately agree with the analysis of deputy prime minister David Lammy that “now is the wrong time to change the pilot”. But the issue is, who could replace him? And it is the question that has prevented Labour MPs from moving against Sir Keir before. These elections muddy the waters even further.
The one thing we know, though, is that even if he did set a timetable for his departure – as has apparently been suggested by energy secretary Ed Miliband – Sir Keir is very unlikely to be replaced by Mr Burnham, who would struggle to find a winnable seat to get him back into Westminster.
Broader Implications for Other Parties
But the results go well beyond leaving questions about Starmer alone. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s personal ratings have been very good of late, but her party is also being wiped out in its traditional heartland areas. Regaining Westminster City Council will be a small boost, but across Essex and the rest of East Anglia, Conservatives are being sent packing. While she is not facing a leadership challenge immediately, these results will raise questions about her future, too.
But the big winner is, of course, Nigel Farage. Just as Reform appeared to be on the slide in the opinion polls, with experts suggesting they had peaked last year, voters have given Mr Farage a huge endorsement across the UK. His hopes of becoming prime minister in 2029 have been relit most spectacularly.
The Question for Labour
It perhaps means that the question posed by former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell will be the one which troubles MPs in his party the most. How do they stop Reform from winning the next general election? Starmer is not the person to do it, but nobody else appears to be either.
