Fresh economic analysis has projected that the majority of full-time workers in Scotland could be pulled into paying the higher rate of income tax within the next five years. This forecast is based on current government fiscal plans and predicted wage growth.
The Threshold Breach: Average Salaries on the Rise
Forecasts indicate that wages are expected to increase by approximately three per cent annually over the coming four years. This steady growth would push the average full-time salary in Scotland to an estimated £44,746.18 by 2029. Crucially, this figure surpasses the current threshold set by the Scottish Government for the higher 42 per cent rate of income tax.
The Scottish Conservatives have seized upon these projections, launching a fierce critique of the governing SNP's taxation strategy. The party's finance spokesman, Craig Hoy, described the plans as "brutal" and accused two "left-wing governments"—Holyrood and Westminster—of being "addicted to tax rises." He specifically referenced UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves's autumn budget, which he claimed further hammers Scottish taxpayers.
A Broken Pledge? The Row Over Manifesto Promises
The controversy is intensified by accusations that First Minister John Swinney misled the Scottish Parliament. Mr Swinney previously asserted that the SNP had kept its manifesto commitment not to raise income tax. However, this claim is contested given two separate income tax increases implemented in 2023 and 2024.
The SNP's 2021 manifesto explicitly promised to freeze income tax rates and bands for the duration of the parliament. Contrary to this pledge, while serving as finance secretary, John Swinney oversaw changes that:
- Increased the tax rate for earnings above £43,662 from 41p to 42p in the pound.
- Lowered the threshold for the top rate of tax from £150,000 to £125,140.
- Raised the top rate from 46p to 47p.
His successor, Shona Robison, continued this trend in the following year by:
- Introducing a new 45 per cent tax band for those earning between £75,000 and £125,140.
- Increasing the top rate of tax further to 48p for earnings above £124,140.
Mr Hoy stated that the new analysis "makes a mockery" of SNP assertions that only those with the "broadest shoulders" pay more. "It defies belief that someone on an average salary will soon be dragged into the higher tax bracket," he added.
Budget Speculation and Government Defence
Attention is now turning to the upcoming Scottish Budget, scheduled for 13 January 2026. Opposition politicians have raised concerns about potential further adjustments to tax thresholds. While Finance Secretary Shona Robison has stated she will not introduce new tax bands or change rates, she has not ruled out amending the thresholds within existing bands.
A Scottish Government spokesman defended its tax policy, arguing it enables greater investment in public services like the NHS and free university tuition. The spokesman also maintained that the majority of Scottish taxpayers are still expected to pay less income tax than they would elsewhere in the UK, a claim disputed by a report from the Scottish Fiscal Commission.
The political storm shows no sign of abating, with the Scottish Conservatives insisting that both the SNP and UK Labour have broken manifesto promises on taxation, leaving ordinary workers to foot the bill.
