A report commissioned by No 10 has warned that crime rates and unemployment will increase in England's 613 most deprived neighbourhoods by the next general election, despite government investment pledges. The Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (Icon) forecasts that these areas, home to one million people, will see crime rates rise from 275 per 1,000 people to over 300, while economic inactivity climbs from 45% to 46% by 2030.
The report's author, Ross Mudie, said that extra funding from schemes like the Pride in Place programme, which allocates £20 million over ten years to nearly 250 areas, is insufficient to reverse long-term trends such as rising antisocial behaviour and struggles in retail and hospitality. He noted that some councils in disadvantaged regions like Blackpool and Knowsley face real-terms cuts, leaving them in a weaker financial position.
The findings add to unrest among northern MPs, who argue that changes to local government funding will divert money away from northern towns. Labour MP Justin Madders said the report is a 'stark warning' that current plans will not reverse years of decline, and urged the government to act with proper funding to counter the threat from populist parties like Reform UK.
Health outcomes are the only area expected to improve slightly, with the proportion of people in poor health falling from 10.6% to 10.3%. Icon has separately called for an additional £2.5 billion per year for disadvantaged neighbourhoods, a proposal backed by local government minister Miatta Fahnbulleh, who acknowledged that 'communities are impatient for change'.
