Andy Burnham is on course to enter Downing Street within weeks after Sir Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader, acknowledging he had lost the support of his MPs and promising an orderly handover. The development comes as the government faces a soaring benefits bill and mounting fiscal pressure, with official figures showing UK borrowing reached £23.3bn in May, up almost a third on the same month last year and £5.6bn higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast.
Burnham's Stance on Welfare Spending
In an interview with The Times last week, Burnham declared he would not be squeamish about reducing the welfare bill, though he ruled out crude short-term cuts. Instead, he advocated long-term plans to support people into work. “I am not squeamish about saying that the plan would be to reduce the welfare bill. Not at all,” he said. He added: “It is not the traditional Westminster way of just crude cuts, short-term cuts that then create a backlash and create more political turbulence. It is actually going to do things that will reduce the benefits bill, moving towards a more preventative state that makes the right investments to support people into work.”
Burnham agreed with the Milburn report that for every £25 spent on benefits for young people, only £1 was spent on employment support. He proposed that government defence procurement contracts include social value, such as apprenticeships and work placements. “To me the fact that Britain has not had a very strong intentional approach to British procurement is crazy. As Mayor of Greater Manchester, I have deliberately fought against the system to have our buses built in Falkirk and Ballymena. I see other contracts going off to China,” he said.
PIP Claimants Reach 4 Million as Timms Review Nears Interim Report
The Department for Work and Pensions is undertaking a wide-ranging review of Personal Independence Payments, co-chaired by Sir Stephen Timms. The number of PIP claimants has now reached 4 million, according to statistics released last week. PIP is not means-tested and is available to individuals aged 16 to State Pension age with long-term health conditions or disabilities affecting daily living or mobility.
Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden confirmed to the Work and Pensions Committee that an interim report from the Timms review is expected before the summer recess on July 17, with a final report due by the end of the year. He made clear that the review's terms of reference send an unambiguous message not to put forward a substantial, cost-increasing package, but acknowledged there is nothing to stop the review from proposing reforms that reduce spending on PIP.
Committee Concerns and Fiscal Context
During the committee session, Peter Bedford noted that the OBR projects welfare spending to reach £400bn by 2030, up from £314bn when Labour took office, and that health and disability spending is set to top £83bn next year, exceeding defence spending of £62bn. He questioned why no welfare reform Bill appeared in the King's Speech. McFadden responded that cost is a consideration and that he is aware of steep increases in health and disability benefits.
Liberal Democrat committee member John Milne pointed out that welfare spend as a percentage of GDP is about where it was under Margaret Thatcher, and that around half of the rise in PIP claimants is attributable to factors like the rising state pension age. He urged McFadden to present a more balanced view of the statistics. However, McFadden refused to provide reassurance, stating that the share of GDP allocated to social security had increased by roughly one percentage point over six or seven years, which he described as quite significant.
Right to Try Reforms Take Effect
New regulations have taken effect in the past month affecting people claiming certain benefits, including PIP. The so-called Right to Try change means that taking up employment will no longer automatically trigger a benefits reassessment for claimants receiving Employment and Support Allowance, PIP, and the health element of Universal Credit in England, Wales and Scotland. The government says this will prevent people from being trapped on benefits.
The Timms review is expected to examine significant amendments, including a substantial increase in face-to-face assessments, potentially longer assessment intervals, deteriorating conditions, and whether medical evidence could be submitted directly from the NHS. Claimants have expressed concern that Burnham's remarks signal readiness to support wider cuts to benefits, although he did not address the possible linking of PIP to work as alluded to in the Milburn report.
