UK consumers should not expect coffee prices to ease for at least two years, according to Italian coffee giant Lavazza, which cited geopolitical tensions and climate change as key drivers of rising costs.
Exceptional Volatility in Coffee Markets
Lavazza reported that the sector has faced “exceptional volatility,” with Arabica coffee prices increasing by 230% since 2021 and Robusta prices surging by 325% over the same period. On Monday, Arabica coffee reached a five-and-a-half-month high, while Robusta posted a five-month high on Tuesday, amid a delayed coffee harvest in Brazil.
Heavy rains in Brazil have disrupted fieldwork and may have lowered coffee crop quality, contributing to the price surge. Additionally, Brazilian coffee farmers are holding back sales, anticipating further price increases and bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Niño weather event.
Market Unprecedented, Says Lavazza Chairman
Lavazza chairman Giuseppe Lavazza described the market as “quite unprecedented,” adding, “Volatility is the new constant.” He noted, “This has been a year of high turbulence and pressure, not just in the coffee market but in the general economy.”
Mr. Lavazza attributed the price increases to geopolitical tensions and climate change, which have “offered the perfect environment for speculators to step in to move the price to the record levels we’ve seen.” He stated, “The coffee market now shows fundamental changes compared to the past. We are living in an environment we don’t know very well.”
Two Years Needed for Market Stabilization
Mr. Lavazza said the market would need “at least two years of good crops coming out of Brazil and Vietnam to ease the situation and take out the effect of speculation from the market.” This suggests that UK consumers will continue to face high coffee prices for the foreseeable future.
At Lavazza’s flagship cafe off Regent Street in central London, a flat white has risen from £4 to £4.40 to take away and from £5.50 to £6.50 to have in, reflecting increased costs. A 1kg bag of the brand’s Qualità Rossa beans now costs around £22.50.
UK Consumers Show Resilience
Despite rising prices, Mr. Lavazza said UK consumers have shown “high resilience,” with sales up on last year. Lavazza experienced another year of “strong growth” in the UK, with revenue rising 13% to £124.9 million in 2025.
The company plans to launch its new Tabli home coffee system in the UK in September. The system uses coffee tabs that are individually completely free of packaging, addressing concerns over the sustainability of aluminium and plastic packaging. Mr. Lavazza described the new system as “the best Lavazza has designed in history.”
