The state pension age may need to rise by as much as eight years unless the government takes steps to cut pension spending, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned. In a report released in 2025, The Pensions Review: Final Recommendations, the think tank urged the government to consider significant changes to the current state pension system to avoid drastic increases.
Projected increases to state pension age
The IFS warns that the state pension age will need to rise to 69 by 2048 and to 74 by 2068 if measures are not taken to reduce spending, such as abolishing the triple lock. Currently, the state pension age is 66 for both men and women, though it is due to rise to 67 in 2026. The report highlights that increased life expectancy is a key driver of the issue.
According to the IFS, between 1975 and 2020, life expectancy for men at age 50 increased by eight years, while the state pension age for men rose by just one year. This means the time men aged 50 could expect to receive the state pension increased by seven years.
Triple lock and political challenges
The Labour government committed in its manifesto to maintaining the state pension triple lock, which guarantees annual increases in line with inflation, average earnings, or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Any changes to pension-age benefits are likely to face strong opposition, as seen with the recent winter fuel payments controversy.
The IFS report, published on Wednesday, July 2, urges the government to make changes to avoid drastic increases to the state pension age. It states: “Modelling in the 2022 Independent Review shows that the increases in the state pension age required to keep spending on the state pension below a certain level of national income would also have to be substantial. That modelling shows that to keep public spending on the state pension below 6% of national income while retaining the triple lock, the state pension age would have to rise to 69 by 2048–49 and 74 by 2068–69.”
IFS recommendations for reform
The 87-page report sets out several recommendations for funding state pensions differently, including scrapping the triple lock and replacing it with a new ‘four-point guarantee’. This would link annual state pension increases to a percentage of the full-time wage rate.
The IFS proposes: “We propose a ‘four-point guarantee’ for the state pension to increase confidence in the state pension as a stable and secure basis of the pension system. This guarantee means that: (1) a clear earnings-linked target for the new state pension should be set to improve predictability and to make sure that pensioner incomes keep up with increases in living standards; (2) the state pension will always increase in line with at least inflation; (3) the state pension will never be means-tested; and (4) the state pension age should continue to increase as longevity at older ages rises, but not by as much as that increase in longevity.”
The IFS emphasises that while the state pension age should rise as longevity increases, it should not rise by the full amount. This leaves room for political parties to prioritise different extents of increase or hold down the state pension age. The proposal is consistent with keeping the ratio of adult life spent above the state pension age constant.
