Andy Burnham, the Labour MP widely seen as a potential successor to Sir Keir Starmer, has declared that abandoning the state pension triple lock would be 'very damaging.' The triple lock, a long-standing policy untouched by party leaders for decades, guarantees the state pension rises annually in line with inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, whichever is highest.
Triple Lock Under Scrutiny
Critics argue that the policy is unsustainable, with total welfare spending in Britain forecast to reach £400 billion by 2030. This includes Department for Work and Pensions benefit expenditure, tax credits, child benefit, and Northern Ireland social security. Total welfare spending is projected to account for 10.6% of GDP and 23.6% of all government spending in 2025-26. Around 55% of social security expenditure goes to pensioners, with £177.7 billion allocated to pensioner benefits in 2025-26 alone.
Despite these figures, Burnham told The i Paper that rolling back on Labour's 2024 general election pledge to maintain the triple lock would be 'very damaging.' His comments come as the Resolution Foundation, a progressive think tank, warned that the triple lock is not affordable over the long term and is unfair to the working-age population. The foundation recommended replacing it with a different mechanism to protect pensioner incomes.
Political Rivals and Experts Weigh In
Burnham's potential rival for Number 10, Wes Streeting, has also made his position clear. He stated: 'I can be absolutely unequivocal about that. The triple lock is here to stay for the entirety of this Parliament.' Streeting also indicated his commitment to the government's 'red lines' in negotiations with the EU for a closer relationship.
Will Prescott, head of research at the think tank Bright Blue, argued that Burnham must address 'big ticket items' like the state pension to reduce the welfare bill, rather than 'tinkering around the edges.' He told The i Paper: 'If you really want to touch the welfare bill, you are going to have to start going for the really big ticket items, and that will, unfortunately, be politically extremely painful to do.'
Alex Clegg, an economist at the Resolution Foundation, said it would be 'encouraging if the debate around what could happen with the triple lock can be had ahead of the next election and going into the manifesto period for all parties.'
Impact on Pensioners and the Economy
The triple lock has been a cornerstone of pension policy since its introduction in 2010, designed to ensure pensioners' incomes keep pace with the cost of living. However, rising life expectancy and an aging population have driven up costs, leading to concerns about intergenerational fairness. The Resolution Foundation's analysis suggests that maintaining the triple lock could require significant tax increases or cuts to other public services.
Burnham, who has positioned himself as a champion of working people, faces pressure to balance pensioner support with fiscal responsibility. As the debate intensifies, all parties are expected to clarify their positions ahead of the next election.
