US small business optimism reached an all-time high in June 2026, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 108.5, surpassing the previous record of 108.0 set in July 2023. The gain was driven by a surge in sales expectations and easing concerns about inflation.
Key Drivers of Optimism
The survey, conducted among 1,200 small business owners, found that the percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes over the next three months increased by 8 percentage points to 38%. Additionally, the share of owners planning to raise compensation fell to 22%, the lowest since March 2021, suggesting labor cost pressures are moderating.
Inflation concerns also eased, with the percentage of owners citing inflation as their single most important problem dropping to 18% from 22% in May. This is the lowest level since November 2021. According to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg, “Small business owners are feeling more confident about the future as the economic outlook improves and inflationary pressures subside.”
Hiring and Investment Plans
The survey showed that 57% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in June, unchanged from May. However, 45% said they had few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Capital expenditure plans remained strong, with 29% of owners planning to make capital outlays in the next six months, up 2 points from May.
“The labor market remains tight, but optimism about future business conditions is driving investment,” Dunkelberg added. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months increased to 40%, the highest level since October 2021.
Impact on the Broader Economy
The surge in small business optimism is a positive signal for the US economy, as small businesses account for nearly half of private-sector employment. Stronger sales expectations and investment plans could translate into faster economic growth in the second half of 2026. However, challenges remain, including ongoing labor shortages and elevated interest rates.
The NFIB report also highlighted that the frequency of price hikes slowed, with a net 28% of owners raising average selling prices in June, down from 32% in May. This suggests that pricing power may be waning as demand normalizes.
