SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing for initial public offerings (IPOs) that could collectively reshape global financial markets. SpaceX launched its IPO on June 12, 2025, pricing shares at $135 each and offering around 555 million shares in an all-primary offering. This debut is heralded as the largest on the US stock market, surpassing Alibaba's $22 billion flotation in 2014 and Saudi Aramco's record IPO in 2019.
SpaceX IPO Details and Market Impact
SpaceX, which merged with Elon Musk's xAI, raised funds directly for the company rather than allowing existing investors to cash out. Dan Ives, principal analyst at Wedbush Securities, noted that Musk aims to control more of the AI ecosystem, potentially combining SpaceX and Tesla to lead the AI revolution. The IPO has already disrupted markets, with Goldman Sachs projecting IPO proceeds across the entire market could quadruple to $160 billion this year, driven largely by marquee AI names.
OpenAI and Anthropic Follow Suit
OpenAI announced plans to go public in June 2025, seeking a valuation likely exceeding its last private valuation of $730 billion. Minmo Gahng, assistant professor of finance at Cornell University, highlighted that OpenAI's household-name recognition could support a richer valuation than fundamentals alone justify. However, he warned that the growth story requires enormous capital spending, and competition from Anthropic, Google, and Meta makes the path to durable positive cash flow uncertain. Anthropic has also announced similar IPO plans.
Record Valuations and Market Concentration
The S&P 500 had its best month since November 2020 in April 2025, driven by AI expenditure and strong mega-cap tech earnings. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, stated that the market is entering a new phase where opportunities lie in physical systems supporting AI expansion. However, concerns about over-concentration are mounting. Just 10 firms, mostly in tech, account for over 40% of the S&P 500's value. Adding SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could push that closer to 50%, exceeding concentration levels seen before the dot-com crash and the 1929 financial crash.
Potential Negative Effects on IPO Market
Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at StoneX, warned that the sheer size of these IPOs could dominate financial markets for weeks, sucking oxygen out of the wider IPO market. Samuel Kerr, global head of equity capital markets at Mergermarket, told CNBC that SpaceX's IPO alone could deter others from going public simultaneously. JP Morgan estimates $410 billion in passive buying from index inclusion of major AI IPOs, which would come at the expense of existing tech giants like the Magnificent Seven.
Historical Precedent and Long-Term Risks
Market analyst GMO calculated that a 1% increase in stock market capitalisation results in a 7.5% decrease in the next 12 months, based on historical data. The three AI companies combined could add 5% to total capitalisation, raising fears of a downturn. Green advised investors to understand that AI expansion is constrained by infrastructure availability, and it's uncertain whether companies will need all that capacity. The IPOs could be a boon or a bust, with time being the ultimate judge.
