The Met Office is forecasting a notable change in weather for southern England later in November, with signs of stormier conditions developing after a period of high pressure.
This week's outlook for London suggests mild and dry conditions, but the long-range forecast points to a distinct shift in the second half of the month. High pressure will dominate conditions across the south for the next couple of weeks, with any amounts of rain or drizzle tending to be small.
Unsettled Conditions Ahead
However, there is an increasing chance of unsettled conditions developing after that, with spells of rain and the potential for strong winds at times. The wettest conditions could become more focussed across the south of the UK, with Atlantic low-pressure systems sweeping through towards the end of the month.
Temperatures are likely to be near or above average for much of the period, although colder temperatures are more likely later in the month.
El Niño and Polar Vortex Concerns
This comes as Londoners have been warned they could face freezing temperatures sooner than expected, as El Niño continues to strengthen across the Pacific to what some scientists are calling “unprecedented levels”. Forecasters have warned that the global phenomenon could disrupt the polar vortex – a vast ring of freezing winds high above the Arctic that normally keeps the coldest air contained around the North Pole.
Should the vortex weaken, it could disrupt the jet stream, allowing bitterly cold Arctic air to plunge southwards towards Europe. The impact could be felt across the capital as early as this month, with London facing a sudden drop in temperatures months earlier than previously expected.
Winter Outlook
The development has raised questions over what it could mean for winter in the UK, particularly as forecasters monitor the possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming event. If the polar system buckles this winter, London could face a severe icy snap reminiscent of previous historic freezes, such as the infamous Beast from the East in 2018.
