As the festive season approaches, the classic question returns: will Britain be treated to a picturesque blanket of snow on Christmas Day? The latest forecast from the Met Office suggests that while temperatures are set to drop, the dream of a widespread white Christmas is unlikely to become a reality this year.
High Pressure Brings Frost, But Not Snowfall
According to deputy chief forecaster Tom Crabtree, high pressure is expected to build next week, leading to drier and less mild conditions over the festive period. "Although temperatures will drop, they are not plummeting," Crabtree explained. He noted that overnight frosts are probable, and some areas may experience mist and fog.
The forecast indicates that significant cold weather looks less probable, though the cooler air does bring a chance of some wintry showers in eastern parts of the country. However, Crabtree emphasised that it remains too early to predict specific details for any single day during Christmas week.
What Actually Counts as a 'White Christmas'?
The Met Office's official threshold for declaring a national 'white Christmas' is surprisingly low. It requires just a single snowflake to be observed falling somewhere in the UK on 25 December. By this technical definition, they happen more often than many think.
Historical data reveals that more than half of all Christmas Days since 1960 have met this threshold. In about half of those years, at least 5% of weather stations reported snow falling. The last technically white Christmas was in 2023, when 11% of stations recorded falling snow, though none reported any settled snow on the ground.
A Rare Sight: Settled Snow on Christmas Day
While falling snowflakes are one thing, having snow actually settle and create that classic winter scene is far rarer. Since 1960, this has occurred on only four occasions: in 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010.
The UK's whitest Christmas on record was in 2010, when a remarkable 83% of weather stations recorded snow on the ground. In contrast, last year's prediction was for a 'grey Christmas', characterised by patches of rain, cloud, and mild temperatures.
Statistically, Christmas sits at the very beginning of the UK's snow season. On average, snow settles on the ground for 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January and 3.4 days in February, based on the 1991-2020 long-term average. Certain regions are far more likely to see festive snow. Since 1960, The Highlands have experienced 175 snowy Christmases, followed by Aberdeenshire with 92.
The frequency of white Christmases has decreased over the centuries, influenced both by a calendar change in 1752 and, more recently, by climate change. Rising average land and sea temperatures have generally reduced the likelihood of snow on 25 December, making those frosty, picture-perfect scenes an increasingly rare festive treat.
