The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released its spring forecast, predicting above-average rainfall for the eastern half of Australia. The wetter conditions are linked to a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which historically brings more rain to inland regions of New South Wales and Victoria. Spring rainfall is 60% to 80% more likely to be above average across most of the east, with September and October expected to be particularly wet.
Night-time temperatures are forecast to be above average across almost the entire country, except for the south-west corner of Western Australia, due to increased cloud cover. Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average in the north and south, while south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales can expect average conditions. Tasmania may see maximum temperatures in the top 20% on record.
The forecast also notes record ocean heat around Australia, with July sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 0.56°C above average, the warmest July on record (since 1900). These warmer waters could enhance the severity of storms and rain systems. Dr Simon Grainger, senior climatologist at the BoM, stated that about 90% of extra heat from global warming goes into the oceans.
Despite the wet outlook, fire chiefs have warned of an increased bushfire risk in parts of Victoria, northern and central Western Australia, and South Australia. Areas of concern include the Dampier Peninsula, Derby Coast, central Kimberley, Little Sandy Desert, south-eastern Pilbara, and south-west Gippsland.
