As the 2026 Australian Open approaches, the women's singles draw is brimming with contenders, yet one player stands as the clear favourite. World No 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the dominant force on hard courts, is aiming for her third title in Melbourne in just four years.
An Unparalleled Hard-Court Record
Since the beginning of 2023, Aryna Sabalenka has won a staggering 38 of her 40 matches played in Australia, securing the Australian Open trophy twice. Her dominance extends across the hard-court majors, where she has compiled an identical 40-2 record at both the Australian and US Opens during that period. The 27-year-old from Belarus is now bidding to reach a seventh consecutive hard-court grand slam final.
However, her supremacy was tested throughout a compelling 2025 season. Three other players—Madison Keys, Coco Gauff, and Iga Swiatek—claimed major titles, while Amanda Anisimova reached two finals. Furthermore, former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina capped the year by winning the WTA Finals, dismantling Sabalenka in a statement-making title match in Riyadh. This depth means Sabalenka faces multiple major threats to her Melbourne crown.
The Key Challengers to Sabalenka's Throne
Elena Rybakina: The Power Server
Possessing the best serve in the women's game, Rybakina's destructive power led her to a Wimbledon title and an Australian Open final against Sabalenka in 2023. After a period disrupted by illness and off-court distractions, her form is returning. She denied Sabalenka the WTA Finals title and the biggest single payday in women's tennis history with a sensational performance in Riyadh, re-establishing herself as a primary threat.
Iga Swiatek: The Ultimate Finalist
The Sabalenka-Swiatek rivalry has much more to give. They have met only twice at a grand slam, most recently in last season's French Open semi-final, and have never clashed in a major final. Swiatek's start to 2026 at the United Cup was shaky, but she remains Sabalenka's antithesis in key areas. Swiatek boasts a perfect 6-0 record in grand slam finals and is just an Australian Open title away from a career Grand Slam. A final between them would be a blockbuster event.
Coco Gauff: The Kryptonite
Gauff has proven to be a particular puzzle for Sabalenka, with her relentless defence and ability to force extra shots. This has triggered catastrophic collapses from the World No 1 in two grand slam finals: the 2023 US Open and last year's Roland Garros. While Gauff's early-round form can be unpredictable, she remains a semi-final threat in Melbourne.
The Rising and Returning Threats
Mirra Andreeva, the 18-year-old sensation, stunned Sabalenka to win the Indian Wells final last season, showcasing her potential for major upsets. Amanda Anisimova, seeking revenge for her US Open final defeat, owns a winning record against Sabalenka and has the power to wrest matches from her grasp.
The returning Naomi Osaka, a two-time Australian Open champion, found her best level at the 2025 US Open and shares a remarkably similar CV with Sabalenka. Belinda Bencic, back in the top-10 after a stellar United Cup, and the ever-consistent Jessica Pegula also pose significant dangers. Defending champion Madison Keys, who defeated Sabalenka in last year's final, will be seeded ninth but lost to her in Brisbane last week.
Sabalenka's Greatest Opponent: Herself
It may seem harsh, but a defining aspect of Sabalenka's recent grand slam finals has been her own battle for composure. After high-profile meltdowns against Keys and Gauff, she vowed to control her emotions against Anisimova in the US Open final—and succeeded. However, her emotions spilled over again after the loss to Rybakina in Riyadh, highlighting an ongoing internal struggle. Her record in all finals since the start of last season is an even 5-5.
Given her phenomenal record in Melbourne, it would be a major shock if Aryna Sabalenka did not reach the final once more. But when she gets there, the title feels truly up for grabs, with a host of rivals capable of seizing the moment.
