Thomas Tuchel was appointed to fix England's tournament problem, but after a World Cup semi-final defeat to Argentina, the question remains: did he solve it or simply find new words to repeat the same old story?
Speaking in March, Tuchel gave his assessment of what had caused England to fall at the final hurdle in Euro 2024: "The identity, the clarity, the rhythm, the repetition of patterns, the freedom of the players, the expression of the players, the hunger. They were more afraid to drop out of the tournament than in my observation than having the excitement and hunger to win it."
Eighteen months later, England's World Cup ended in familiar fashion as Argentina came from behind to win 2-1 in Atlanta. "We were so close," Tuchel told BBC Sport, "but we got too passive after we scored, conceded a lot of chances, couldn't turn the ball possession around and just conceded so many crosses and chances and shots."
The Pattern Under Southgate
Gareth Southgate's record between 2018 and 2024 tells a story England supporters know instinctively. Across 19 World Cup qualifiers, England never lost, winning 15 and drawing four, averaging 2.01 expected goals per game while conceding just 0.35. Their average xG difference stood at +1.66.
Then tournament football arrived. Across the 2018 World Cup, Euro 2020, the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, England's attacking output fell to 1.17 xG per game while xG conceded more than doubled to 0.89. Their average xG difference collapsed from +1.66 to just +0.28.
The style changed too. Southgate's qualifying sides averaged 178.3 forward passes and 83.0 passes into the final third per game. In tournaments, those figures dropped to 135.3 and 49.9 respectively, while touches inside the opposition box fell from 24.5 to 15.7.
Most tellingly, the press became more cautious. PPDA – passes allowed per defensive action, where lower numbers indicate more aggressive pressing – rose from 7.1 during qualifying to 13.9 at major tournaments.
Tuchel's Early Read
England won all eight World Cup qualifiers under Tuchel and kept a clean sheet in every single game, averaging 2.41 xG while conceding just 0.25. Their average xG difference reached +2.16, comfortably ahead of Southgate's qualifying teams. They pressed more aggressively, recording a PPDA of 6.7, while averaging 34.4 touches inside the opposition box per game.
The World Cup brought inevitable regression. Across seven matches, England's xG difference fell to +1.03, PPDA rose to 12.8 and touches inside the box dropped to 23.6 per game.
Under both managers, England became less aggressive once tournament football began. PPDA almost doubled, attacking output declined and results became harder to come by. The difference is in where England landed after that regression. Southgate's tournament sides fell to an xG difference of just +0.28. Tuchel's England, even after the semi-final defeat, still finished at +1.03 – more than three times higher – while averaging over 50% more touches inside the opposition penalty area.
What Went Wrong Against Argentina
England's semi-final performance was poor. They finished with just five shots worth 0.79 expected goals, down from tournament averages of 13.6 shots and 2.10 xG. They managed only four touches inside Argentina's penalty area, compared with an average of 23.6 across the tournament. Crosses fell from a tournament average of 17.7 to just 11.
Harry Kane's performance reflected the same frustrating pattern. Both his xG total and penalty-box touches were his lowest of the tournament. Across 105 minutes, Kane produced just one shot worth 0.01 xG, failed to record a single touch inside Argentina's penalty area and completed only eight of his 14 passes.
Tuchel's decision to switch to a back five further reduced what little attacking threat remained. Between Anthony Gordon's opener and Enzo Fernandez's equaliser, England saw just 12% of possession, with zero touches in Argentina's penalty area.
Gary Lineker, speaking on The Rest Is Football podcast on Netflix, said: "This one seems really, really hard to take. We went a goal up, they sat deep. The substitutes he made made that even deeper. It turns to five at the back and you're going, 'We will play a low block', against a team who are good against it. It made zero sense to me."
On BBC 5 Live, South American football pundit Tim Vickery added: "England had Argentina exactly where they wanted them. Argentina were terrified of England running at them at pace. England took off all of the players doing that. I'm absolutely baffled at the decisions the coach has taken here."
The Verdict
One tournament is not eight years, and drawing solid conclusions from such a small sample of games is tenuous. However, the broader numbers are still encouraging. Across an entire World Cup, Tuchel's England created chances and controlled matches at a level Southgate's tournament sides never consistently reached.
England averaged 23.6 touches in the box per game at this World Cup, just below the 24.5 Southgate's sides averaged during qualifying and far above the 15.7 his sides managed in major tournaments. England also came back to win two games after going behind (DR Congo and Norway). Southgate's charges only managed such a feat three times in eight years.
Yet while the overall numbers suggest improvement, the final 35 minutes against Argentina showed the underlying problem may not have disappeared. When England needed to defend a lead on the biggest stage, Tuchel reached for the same response that increasingly defined Southgate's tournaments. If that pattern is to ever be resolved, England need to lose that fear.
