Aston Villa's emphatic 4-0 comeback victory over Nottingham Forest to secure a place in the UEFA Europa League final has significant implications for several Premier League clubs, as well as for Jose Mourinho's Benfica.
How Villa's Success Affects Premier League European Places
Villa currently sit fifth in the Premier League. If they maintain that position and win the Europa League, sixth place in the division will also earn Champions League qualification for next season. Bournemouth currently occupy sixth, but both Brentford and Brighton are within two points of the Cherries. For all three teams, qualifying would mark their first-ever appearances in Europe's top-level competition.
The situation also provides hope for Chelsea, who despite six consecutive league defeats are four points off sixth alongside Everton and another potential Champions League debutant in Fulham. As a result, Villa can expect great home support when they face Freiburg in Istanbul.
The scenario becomes more complex depending on Villa's league position. If Villa move up into fourth, where Liverpool are currently placed, only the top five teams in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League.
Current State of Play for European Qualification
As a reward for English clubs' collective progress in European competitions this season, the Premier League has been awarded a European Performance Spot (EPS) in the UEFA Champions League. This means an extra team qualifies based on league position.
Currently, the top five teams in the Premier League go into the Champions League, with two qualifying places for the Europa League (sixth place and the FA Cup winners) and one Conference League place (Carabao Cup winners). Manchester City have already secured a Champions League spot, so their Conference League place for winning the Carabao Cup is passed to the next highest finisher not yet qualified for Europe, meaning seventh place qualifies for the Conference League.
The FA Cup final between Chelsea and Manchester City adds further complexity. The winner earns Europa League qualification. If Chelsea win and finish outside the top seven, they take the Europa League spot. If they finish sixth, seventh gets the Europa League spot and eighth gets the Conference League spot. If Manchester City win, their Europa League spot passes to seventh and the Conference League spot to eighth.
If Villa lose the Europa League final, these permutations remain unchanged.
What Happens if Villa Win the Europa League?
The Europa League winner automatically qualifies for the Champions League. If Villa win but finish outside the top five, they qualify regardless of league position. If they remain in the top five and win, their exact position impacts who qualifies.
If Villa finish fifth, the EPS passes to sixth, allowing Bournemouth, Brentford, or Brighton to make their Champions League debut. Bournemouth are favourites for sixth with a one-point buffer over Brentford. In this case, the Premier League forfeits its Europa League spot for league position, and seventh qualifies for the Conference League, with FA Cup knock-on effects still applying.
If Villa finish third or fourth, the EPS is not passed down, and the top five go into the Champions League. Sixth earns a Europa League spot, and seventh gets a Conference League place, before any FA Cup knock-on effects.
In this scenario, the EPS falls to the individual club with the best UEFA coefficient ranking from the Champions League qualifying rounds. Currently, Jose Mourinho's Benfica, second in the Portuguese league behind Porto, are the highest-ranked eligible club, placed 14th in UEFA's coefficient table ahead of rivals Sporting in 15th. Benfica fans will therefore be cheering on Aston Villa in both the Europa League final and the Premier League run-in, as Villa's form is crucial to their hopes of qualifying for Europe's elite competition.
Key Fixtures Ahead
Where Villa finish is likely to be determined on Friday May 15 when they host Liverpool. The pair are level on points, so three points for either side will likely decide the final standings. With the Europa League final taking place five days later on Wednesday May 20, Villa may rest key players before travelling to Istanbul to face Freiburg, as they did in the Premier League against Tottenham ahead of their second leg clash with Forest.
