England's World Cup campaign hasn't even begun, but one Thomas Tuchel decision could define the Three Lions' tournament: choosing John Stones over Marc Guehi.
Mirror chief football reporter John Cross reported on Tuesday that Tuchel "loves" Ezri Konsa for his "pace, tenacity and reading of the game," with his starting place virtually certain. In his predicted XI, Cross suggests Tuchel's "tighest call" would likely see veteran Stones get the nod over his former Manchester City teammate, despite Guehi being England's first-choice centre-half for the past three years.
Cross added: "Guehi probably thinks back to Tuchel’s first game in charge of England and he did not start - and still wonders whether the ex-Chelsea boss who let him go from Stamford Bridge really fancies him. But that is probably in Guehi’s mind."
On the surface, it seems a strange call: a perennially injured 32-year-old who left his club at the end of his contract, preferred to his 25-year-old replacement at club level and one of the Premier League's most dependable centre-backs in recent years.
You'd be forgiven for thinking Tuchel was acting on reputation. Stones has always been a tremendous talent and, for many, England's best centre-back of the last 15 years, but Guehi has undoubtedly had the better spell leading up to the tournament.
However, looking through Machine Football's model reveals a different picture, free of sentimentality. If Stones starts against Croatia, it will be a tactical decision based on one thing: set pieces.
The Numbers Behind a Massive Call
Marc Guehi vs John Stones in stats (Opta)
- Minutes played: 1690 vs 1144
- Interceptions per 90: 1.6 vs 0.87
- Fouls conceded per 90: 0.69 vs 0
- Possession won per 90: 3.41 vs 4.01
- Clearances per 90: 4.15 vs 4.25
- Duels per 90: 9.11 vs 4.09
- Duel success: 63.2% vs 78.9%
- Aerial duel success: 66.3% vs 83.3%
- Dribbled past per 90: 0.37 vs 0.24
Tuchel has made no secret of his focus on maximising England's performance at dead-ball situations. If this is a priority, one statistic stands out above all others.
Machine Football ranks Stones in the top 1% globally for heading ability—not just among centre-backs or Premier League defenders, but across every player in the database. Guehi, meanwhile, sits in the 48th percentile for defensive headers among centre-backs—a mammoth gap between the two potential starters.
Stones is far from the biggest defender, but despite standing just two inches taller than Guehi, he is simply put one of the best aerial defenders in football.
That's crucial for a high-pressing team expected to dominate possession and force opponents into long balls, but it's essential given Tuchel has made clear set pieces will be a major part of England's approach.
England's Set Piece Plan
The deliveries are already accounted for. Declan Rice averaged 4.51 corners per 90 during England's World Cup qualifying campaign and ranks in the top 5% globally for crossing. It's been reported that Tuchel will embrace Arsenal's set-piece skill, and if Bukayo Saka starts, that's another master of delivery.
Marcus Rashford is also adept at deliveries, taking set pieces regularly for Barcelona last season with 4.31 corners per game in La Liga.
So the question remains: who will attack those deliveries? With Harry Maguire left out, alternative aerial threats must be identified. Stones arriving at the back post is a very different proposition to Guehi—and Tuchel knows it.
The Trade-Off
None of this means Guehi is a bad player. The model suggests he has surpassed Stones in recovery pace and all-round game, becoming the more complete centre-back. Guehi ranks in the top 5% globally for creativity and passing accuracy, exceptional numbers for a defender. He also scores higher than Stones for tackling, ball recoveries, and defensive actions.
In many ways, Guehi is the successor to Stones at club level—an expansive centre-back capable of influencing the game across the pitch. His estimated transfer value of £82 million (around 10 times Stones' £8.4 million value) reflects his age, availability, and long-term potential.
Across a full league season, Guehi is arguably the better option. But in a knockout tournament, that's beside the point. Tuchel's job is to pick a team that gives England the best chance of winning one-off games.
The Risk
The one glaring concern with Stones is his availability. The former Everton man has had an incredible career, but injuries have hampered his recognition among the world's best. Last season, Stones made just nine league appearances compared to Guehi's 35—a genuine concern in a tournament where England may play seven matches in a month, having already lost Tino Livramento to injury and with concerns over Saka.
But Tuchel knows this better than anyone, watching him daily in training. If he's willing to start Stones, it's because England's coaching staff believe he is fit enough.
The Verdict
There is a strong case that Guehi is the better defender right now. But that's not necessarily the question Tuchel is trying to answer.
Tuchel's squad selection was controversial, to say the least. Few could accuse him of shying away from unpopular decisions, and this is no different.
England have elite set-piece takers in Rice, Rashford, and Saka. As the fourth-ranked side in the world, England expect to dominate territory, making set pieces inevitable. Time after time last season, sides that capitalised on those situations came out on top. For that to work, heading ability matters.
That's why Stones is likely to start against Croatia—not out of sentiment or reputation, but because he is Tuchel's right tool for the job.
