The first afternoon of this year's Arc meeting unfolded in bright sunshine on Saturday, but the clods of turf being kicked up in the Group One Prix du Cadran were a sign of the significant rain that had fallen since Friday evening. This changes the shape and narrative of Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
"Proper soft and it's going to take a lot of getting," was the verdict of Dylan Browne McMonagle after his win on Tennessee Stud in the opening Prix Chaudenay. That was echoed by Tom Marquand, the Cadran winner aboard George Scott's Caballo De Mar. "It's very soft but not heavy," he said. "It would be an injustice to call it heavy because they've done a really good job of having us on the nicest part of the track and tomorrow it will open out again to freshen it up, but it's testing."
For good or ill, the prospects of all 17 runners have been affected by the abrupt softening of the ground, but the most obvious losers are the three runners from Japan, bidding to succeed where 33 compatriots have failed over the past 56 years. A week ago, Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii and Croix Du Nord were priced up between 8-1 and 16-1, but Thursday's draw for starting positions left Byzantine Dream and Croix Du Nord marooned in wide stalls and the rain has added to the scale of their task. All three are now available at 14-1 or bigger.
Japanese racing is conducted almost exclusively on good ground or faster so the stallions and mares in its breeding programme are fast-ground horses. It normally requires a career-best performance to win an Arc and the trio are unlikely to run up to their very best form on the rain-softened ground or from a wide stall. The balance has tipped appreciably towards the Europeans and runners from France, Ireland and England now fill the top six slots in the betting.
Aidan O'Brien's Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four starts this season including the Oaks and Irish Oaks, is a narrow favourite from the Prix Vermeille winner, Aventure. Sosie, the beaten favourite when fourth last year, is a 9-1 shot to give André Fabre a record-extending ninth Arc, while Daryz, a close second to Croix Du Nord over 10 furlongs here in their trial last month, is a 12-1 chance alongside Kalapana and another Fabre-trained runner, Cualificar.
That leaves Daryz and Cualificar as interesting options, not least because they are also the most likely contenders to take a big step forward on the day that matters most. Cualificar (3.05) is almost equally unexposed at 12 furlongs, having made his debut at the full Arc trip only last month when he was successful in the Prix Niel. His trainer's record in the race speaks for itself – Fabre has won twice as many Arcs as any other trainer in its 105-year history – and he has plotted a careful path towards Longchamp with his latest three-year-old contender.
