A new analysis of 5,000 years of civilisation warns that global collapse is the most likely outcome unless inequality is addressed. Dr Luke Kemp of the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk argues that 'self-termination is most likely' if current trajectories continue.
Kemp's book examines the rise and fall of more than 400 societies over seven years of research. He finds that people are fundamentally egalitarian, but collapses are often driven by enriched, status-obsessed elites. Past collapses frequently improved the lives of ordinary citizens, but today's deeply interconnected and unequal global civilisation could lead to the worst collapse yet.
The threat, Kemp says, comes from leaders exhibiting 'dark triad' traits—narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism—in a world facing climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots. He proposes solutions including 'don't be a dick', genuinely democratic societies and an end to inequality.
Kemp rejects the term 'civilisation', calling it propaganda by rulers. He uses 'Goliaths' to describe societies built on domination, such as the Roman empire. These states require three types of 'Goliath fuel': grain as storable surplus, monopolised weaponry, and 'caged land' that prevents migration from tyrants.
All Goliaths contain seeds of their own demise due to inequality, Kemp argues. Elites with dark triad traits race for resources, arms and status, extracting wealth and making societies fragile. This leads to infighting, corruption, immiseration, and eventual collapse from shocks like disease, war or climate change.
