As England's cricket team prepares for their daunting Ashes tour Down Under, a leading statistician has predicted a series filled with unpredictability and potential 'cataclysmic collapses' that could define the outcome.
Unpredictable Battle Ahead
BBC statistician Andy Zaltzman, speaking to the PA news agency ahead of the series starting Monday 17 November 2025, described the challenge facing Ben Stokes' squad as particularly difficult to forecast. England are searching for their first win in Australia since the 2010-11 series, having drawn the last two home encounters.
'I veer between quite confident optimism and the innate pessimism of someone who grew up watching English cricket,' Zaltzman admitted. He highlighted the concerning statistic that no current England player has ever won a Test in Australia, with the squad collectively recording zero wins and 28 losses between them.
However, the statistician found hope in historical precedent, noting that Andrew Strauss's victorious 2010-11 team had 'an almost identical record' before achieving their superb 3-1 victory.
England's Aggressive Approach and Vulnerabilities
Zaltzman pointed to England's attacking batting approach, which made the 2023 series so thrilling, as both their greatest strength and potential weakness. 'England's batters can transform games quickly but they are more vulnerable, I think, to cataclysmic collapses,' he warned.
The statistician revealed how England's aggression in 2023 disrupted Australia's premier bowlers. Pat Cummins recorded one of his worst-ever series with an average of 37.72 and an economy rate of 4.27, while Josh Hazlewood conceded 4.56 runs per over after 16 consecutive series where he'd maintained under three. Scott Boland was effectively hit out of the series entirely.
The experience deficit among England's tourists is significant, with only five squad members having previously played in an away Ashes. Ben Stokes stands alone as the only current player to have scored a Test century in Australia.
Key Players and Potential Weaknesses
Zaltzman identified several crucial factors that could determine the series outcome. Regarding Joe Root's much-discussed lack of an Australian century, he noted: 'He's had a lot of fifties and not many failures.' Meanwhile, Harry Brook faces a significant challenge given his poor white-ball record in Australia, averaging just 9.85 in T20 internationals and 6.29 in the Big Bash.
The statistician was particularly optimistic about Ben Stokes' bowling impact, suggesting his previous Test average of 40.94 Down Under was misleading. 'If Stokes is fit to bowl in all five Tests, that raises England's chances significantly,' Zaltzman emphasised.
He also highlighted Josh Tongue as potentially having an 'unexpectedly big impact', while recalling Mark Wood's 'astonishing speed and endurance' during the previous tour and Jofra Archer's successful 2019 debut against Australia where he took 22 wickets at 20.27.
Zaltzman identified an intriguing statistical trend that England will likely target: The first Australian wicket has fallen for 10 or less in the last four Ashes series.
For Australia, Steve Smith remains the batting linchpin. 'He's still the most important player, certainly with the bat, in the Australian team,' Zaltzman stated, noting Smith's recent return to form with four hundreds in his last eight Tests.
Ultimately, Zaltzman captured the sentiment of cricket fans worldwide: 'I think everyone's just thirsting for a competitive series where we don't know that Australia are keeping the Ashes with two entire Test matches to go.'
