US Democracy Stabilises at Diminished Level After Trump's Return, Experts Report
American democracy has settled into a diminished state, according to a new survey released on Tuesday. Researchers from the nonpartisan democracy-tracking project Bright Line Watch found that the health of US democracy has stabilised after a sharp decline last year, but remains well below levels recorded before the start of Donald Trump's second term.
Survey Details and Findings
The findings are based on two waves of surveys conducted by Bright Line Watch, which polls hundreds of US scholars at American colleges and universities. The first survey was conducted in late December and early January, a volatile period marked by the Trump administration's immigration crackdown in Minnesota and US military actions in Venezuela. To account for potential shifts in perceptions, a second survey was fielded in February and early March.
In the initial findings, experts' views of US democracy rose to 60 on a scale of 100, up from a record-low of 53 in the early months of Trump's second term. This uptick may be attributed to Democrats' success in off-year elections, suggesting that free and fair elections were still possible. However, following the toppling of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, experts' ratings slipped back to 56 and remained consistent at 57 in the second survey.
Historical Context and Projections
During Trump's first term and Joe Biden's presidency, ratings of US democracy were relatively stable, never falling below 60 or exceeding 70. Since then, scholars' views have largely stabilised at lower levels, with modest fluctuations tied to major events. While this trajectory offers assurance that democratic performance is no longer rapidly deteriorating, it underscores a sobering reality: experts see little evidence of a near-term recovery.
On average, experts project that American democracy will remain at roughly its current level through 2027, with only gradual improvement expected over the next decade. These ratings are notably higher than forecasters predicted for the end of 2025, when US democratic performance was expected to fall to 50, with AI forecasters predicting 52.
Partisan Divisions and Public Perception
The public holds a dim view of American democracy, but opinions are sharply divided along partisan lines over how well the system is functioning. In the Bright Line Watch survey, scholars evaluated US performance on 35 democratic principles, with little change except for an improvement in their view of judicial checks on the executive branch. This may reflect recent Supreme Court rulings curtailing Trump's power and the end of National Guard deployments to major US cities.
Experts registered near-unanimous alarm at recent actions by the Trump administration. For instance, 96% said Trump's demand that his attorney general take legal action against political opponents was a threat to democracy, 95% cited his call to nationalise voting as a threat, and 93% said the same of his suggestion that Democratic lawmakers' comments about unlawful military orders were seditious behaviour punishable by death.
Among the public, these actions drew partisan responses, with substantial approval from Republicans, especially those aligned with Trump's Maga movement. Notably, overall public confidence in the voting system remains roughly in line with levels before the 2020 election and is less polarised than it was ahead of the 2022 and 2024 midterms and presidential race.
Broader Assessments and Responses
The Bright Line Watch findings place the US in a similar position to other recent assessments, such as those by Freedom House and the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, both of which reported steep democratic backsliding under the Trump administration. The V-Dem institute noted that the speed of democratic dismantling in the US is unprecedented in modern history.
The White House and Trump himself have forcefully pushed back against suggestions of autocratic governance. Trump has stated, "I don't like a dictator. I'm not a dictator. I am a man with great common sense, and I'm a smart person." Some studies suggest political scientists may show a pessimism bias in their assessments, and Democrats argue that winning control of Congress could check what they see as the president's authoritarian ambitions.
In summary, while US democracy shows signs of stabilisation, it remains in a diminished state with limited prospects for immediate recovery, highlighting ongoing challenges in democratic health and partisan divides.
